Concerns mount on surging thuggery, hooliganism ahead 2023

There are growing concerns and apprehension among stakeholders over the rising spate of thuggery and hooliganism, which have trailed electioneering in Nigeria in recent weeks, ahead of the 2023 general election.

The amendment of the Electoral Act, extended the period for campaign for the general election to five months from the initial three months in Nigeria.

Among Nigerians and stakeholders, the changes were received with joy and there was optimism, especially with the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the adoption of electronic transmission of results that sanity would be restored to the electoral system to a significant extent.

Parts of the challenges that have hindered the smooth conduct of election in Nigeria in the last two decades are thuggery and hooliganism, leading to the death many innocent Nigerians.

According to the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) report, violence, violation of ballot secrecy, and harassment of voters and journalists characterised Nigeria’s 2019 general election.

The report stated that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) worked in a porous security and politically-charged environment, making the electoral officials exposed to physical attacks and intimidation.

”The elections became increasingly marred by violence and intimidation. This harmed the integrity of the electoral process and may deter future participation.

”Around 150 people died in election-related violence during the campaign period and over the election days. INEC reported attacks on its offices, and also fatalities, abductions and sexual assault against its officials.

“There were insufficient accompanying transparency measures. Other procedural weaknesses continued, including in regards to checks and transparency in the results process,” part of the report stated.

Nigeria’s leading political parties have been accused of being culpable; they have failed to act and curb the excesses of their supporters and party members from engaging in violent acts.

In the last two decades, the spate of violence and hooliganism has undermined the credibility of elections in Nigeria and frustrates efforts to deepen gender inclusion in the electoral system.

Observers have said that part of the reasons fuelling violence include the growing impunity in the country and lack of respect for the rule of law.

In recent times, observers and stakeholders have suggested several measures to curtain what has become a menace. Part of the suggestion is the agitations for the setting up of election offences tribunal or commission to prosecute culprits.

The bill for setting up the commission is under debate at the country’s parliament, after input by stakeholders.

Interestingly, the large-scale violence noticed in Nigeria’s election over the years often comes after the signing of the peace accord by political parties and their major candidates.

Similar situation is the case this time around, where 18 political parties recently pledged to play the game by the rules.

Presidential candidates of all political parties recently signed a peace accord committing themselves to a peaceful campaign.

Despite the peace accord in place, there have been increased reports of violent attacks, killings and clashes in recent weeks among supporters of the major parties.

The situation has raised fear among political watchers, that some politicians may be banking on thugs for victory, especially in opposition strongholds, where they are not popular.

Similarly, reports of attacks on political parties by opponents using thugs has become common as the electioneering intensifies.

Some weeks ago, the Zamfara police command said one person was killed, while 18 others sustained injuries following a clash by two youth groups in the state.

In Zamfara thugs attacked the PDP members; in Kaduna, the same thing. Hired thugs are disrupting campaign rallies; removing opponents’ posters and billboards.

In Lagos State, the governorship candidate of the PDP, Abdulazeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor), recently alleged that he escaped death by a whisker as his campaign team was attacked by thugs alleged to be sponsored by a rival party.

The incident was said to have happened when the campaign train was returning from a visitation to PDP members at the Ikoga Junction area of Badagry Local Government Area.

Thus, there is increasing apprehension among stakeholders; that if the security agencies and the electoral umpire are not proactive, violence may characterise the 2023 general election, which may just be a repeat of previous polls, if not more judging by the desperation being shown by politicians currently.

Political analysts say rising violence in Nigeria’s election shows the polity is yet to mature and develop to address rising challenges facing the people. They also expressed the fear that there was a likelihood of voter apathy if the dangerous trend was not halted.

They suggested that security agencies would need to scale up their game by being proactive in curtailing crises that may escalate into violence.

Kunle Okunade, political analyst, blamed political actors for failing to play politics by the rules.

According to him, “Political violence has been identified as one of the hindrances of the development of politics in the third world, particularly Nigeria.

“There has never been any election cycle since 1999 that the process does not witness electoral violence either before, during or after the election. And this has really negatively affected the nature of the Nigeria state.

“The level of violence in the electoral process would be determined by how the political actors comport themselves in the face of their supporters and how they are able to mind their political language before, during and after election.

“The language and messages deployed by the actors often cause violence that they may not know how it will end.

“Political actors must conduct themselves properly before, during and after elections. The candidates must also mind their language and messages they pass across in the electioneering process”.

Adelaja Adeoye, a public affairs commentator and politician, said INEC must do more to protect voters and provide an environment at the polling units where people can vote without fear.

“It is the duty of INEC and the security operatives to ensure that electorates go to the poll without fear of harassment.

“There must be adequate security to nip in the bud all these fears of violence, because this is not the first time we are going into an election.”

Read also: How National Orientation Agency could prevent election violence

A concerned Nigerian who spoke with our correspondent recounted the trauma, he suffered in 2019 in the bid to cast his vote.

“Those of us who survived the mayhem unleashed by some hoodlums at some electoral wards in Ago, Okota, Lagos, during the 2019 gubernatorial election still live with the scary memory.

“The election was disrupted as many of us were chased away from the queue, those who resisted were injured, ballot boxes were carted away and burnt by the hoodlums, who were hired to ensure that the election did not hold in the place they considered as the stronghold of their main opposition at that time,” he said on condition of anonymity.

Still using Lagos as a case study, there was nothing at stake in 2019, now that much is at stake for 2023, pundits are worried that politicians are going to take thuggery to a much higher level in order to snatch victory at all costs.

Same fear is being anticipated across the country by concerned Nigerians who think the country is in a more precarious situation for the 2023 presidential election because of the desperation to rule at all cost by the major candidates, with some claiming it is their ‘turn’, their ‘right’ and all manner of claims that point to their desperation and eventual frustration at occupying the highest position in the country.

Unfortunately, these are happening right in the face of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and also after the peace accord signed by the politicians.

Monitoring from his base in Brussels in Belgium, Samuel Onikoyi, a Nigeria researcher and academia, decried that thuggery and electoral violence are going to more than double in the 2023 presidential election because of the calibre of the actors.

“Atiku Abubakar had it rough with Olusegun Obasanjo as the vice president because both are strong characters, then Bola Tinubu has successfully wrestled the control of Lagos from any opposition or intruder including the Federal Government, through his foot soldiers, but Peter Obi is equally battle ready because of the insult on his region by the Nigerian system and backup by some known and unknown forces too, and a Kwakwanso can stop any political rally in Kano if he wishes too.

“So, I see all parties fighting it all out and that will result in the most violent election in Nigeria’s democracy history,” Onikoyi said.

Speaking further, the academia thinks that the level of thuggery will heighten in the 2023 elections because the INEC has not being strong on punishing electoral offenders, amid allegations of compromises and favoring of the ruling party, which appointed its executives.

“In a case where the INEC annuls an election or gives victory to another candidate because of its investigations that found a candidate culpable in electoral fraud or violence, such candidate should not only lose the election but also go to jail, alongside his thugs, sponsors and collaborators within the INEC and security personnel also involve,” Onikoyi said.

He noted further that such actions would have solved thuggery issue in Nigerian elections long ago.

Fatai Omidani, a political analyst, thinks that the 2023 election will witness the highest level of thuggery because of the failure of the two major parties; the PDD and APC, which has no ground to contest any election or win if Nigeria is a sane society.

“We know parties rig elections, but 2023 is not about just rigging but the highest level of intimidation to scare voters, ballot box snatching, wanton killings and all manner of violence to steal victory, which the corrupt politicians and their desperate parties know cannot be when the election is free and fair,” Omidani said.

According to him, the level of awareness in the land will curb vote buying, but parties will use thuggery to force voters to shift ground or disrupt elections when they cannot secure votes for their pay masters.

But Ifekwe Obi-Okonkwo, a senior lecturer at University of Nigeria Nsukka, noted that with the high level of unemployment, those who took to crime as means of survival, will see the 2023 election as a big opportunity to make money from politicians as long as they are paid for their devilish actions.

“Those who kidnapped our students who were returning after the 8-month strike said they were jobless, then imagine what they will do when desperate politicians recruit them. These hoodlums are more in number now and are more than willing to perpetrate all manners of electoral violence as long as their pay is sure. So, expect more violence and it is already happening,” Obi-Okonkwo said.

Offering solutions, Onikoyi thinks that the INEC has to wake up to its responsibilities to enforce relevant electoral laws, especially now that the new electoral act has empowered it to do so.

“The INEC needs to test the new electoral laws. I think that the law empowers it to disqualify a candidate or party culpable of electoral offenses pre or during elections. Let’s do that and curb the excesses of the politicians and check thuggery,” Onikoyi admonished the INEC.

In the same vein, Omidani is asking for relevant laws to prosecute security personnel that aid electoral violence or partake in other offenses.

“I have never heard that some soldiers or police officers accused of electoral fraud were prosecuted. It means they worked for the ruling party, which undermines fairness. You cannot use state apparatus in your favour during elections because security should not be compromised at any given point and that is why Boko Haram terrorists and other bandits are thriving. Security should be fair enough to secure lives and not based sentiments. Government has the key, it should ensure security personnel are working for the country’s interest at elections and not for parties or candidates,” Omidani said.

However, Gbenga Ogunleye, head, media and communication for the campaign organisation of Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, the People Democratic Party (PDP) gubernatorial candidate in Lagos State, do not see violence, especially against the opposition being addressed, rather he thinks that the opposition should be strong enough, undeterred by the intimidations and focused on unseating the ruling party.

“The Lagos APC-sponsored hoodlums attacked our campaign team, injured members of the team including some journalists and party members and they destroyed many of our vehicles on October 23, 2022, while we were on our way from Ikoga community, in Badagry Local Government Area.

“Our governorship candidate reported immediately to the State Commissioner of Police and the Police Area Commander in Badagry, but we were undaunted, immediately the next day, we were in Ojo Local Government Area to continue the campaign ward tour. And the good people of Lagos State are with us in this project,”Ogunleye said in an exclusive interview with BusinessDay.

As rightly pointed out by Ogunleye, electoral violence will heighten for the 2023 elections, but parties, especially opposition and their supporter should not be undaunted and should always report such cases even if actions were not taken in the earlier reported cases.

But Onikoyi is reminding thugs that they are eating their future as no one will be a thug forever, while advising politicians to have mercy on the masses they have perpetually impoverished in order to always control them during elections.