Coalition against Tinubu thickens as opposition regroups

The plot by the opposition parties to form a robust coalition and unseat incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 is gaining momentum across Nigeria.

In recent weeks opposition parties’ figures have intensified consultations which have seen the beginning of realignment of political forces.

This is in preparation for the much-talked-about coalition of parties to wrest power from the ruling party in 2027.

Last week, in what appeared to be a major loss to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, announced his resignation from the party, decamping to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

The former governor’s defection ended months of speculations about his relationship with the APC after criticising the party severally.

Also, it appears such defections could see the return of Peter Obi, former Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election to the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Obi, who is also the leader of the Obidient Movement, a political action group, last Thursday, met behind closed doors with the Chairman of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Governors Forum, Bala Mohammed.

Reports said that the former Anambra State governor visited Bauchi to ensure that the PDP governors were on the same page with the calls on him and his running mate on the LP platform, Senator Datti Baba Ahmed, to re-join the PDP.

There are reports that prominent PDP leaders, including the Fourth Republic Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, had been mounting pressures on the former LP presidential candidate to return to PDP to join forces with like-minds and rescue the country from economic challenges and social unease.

During Obi’s visit, Governor Mohammed had expressed his readiness to collaborate with Obi in forming a robust opposition to challenge what he described as “mediocres” parading as leaders.

He stated: “Obi is the leader of the opposition in Nigeria due to his status and track record. Some skeptics may try to pre-empt our plans, but I want to make it clear that I am committed to working with Mr. Peter Obi to close ranks and ensure the delivery of good governance to the country.”

Mohammed emphasized the need for a strong opposition built on knowledge, vision, and a clear roadmap to recover Nigeria from those he believes are unfit to lead. He reiterated that the time had come for action with integrity, sincerity, and focus.

There are reports that many opposition leaders, opposition parties and aggrieved leaders in the ruling party would shift camps to build a strong coalition to challenge President Tinubu yet-to-be announced re-election bid in 2027.

Although multiple source have said that opposition leaders in the country were still discussing the shape of the proposed coalition ahead of 2027 and how the power-sharing arrangement would be, it is clear that considering Obi’s growing popularity especially among young Nigerians, he would play a key role to the success of such coalition plan.

Some analysts say that the likelihood of Obi to return to the PDP is not totally a surprise considering the fact that the LP has been allegedly hijacked by the agents of the ruling party and may not be a competitive platform in 2027.

Sources say that some aggrieved chieftains of the APC, like Abubakar Malami, former Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Abdullahi Adamu, former national chairman of the APC, among other leaders of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) which merged into the APC in 2015 may dump the APC in the coming months.

Read also: Nigeria must rise above religious bigotry – Tinubu

Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election has called for alliance of opposition parties against the APC in 2027, and has been consulting like-minded people across the country.

The seeming push by the opposition leaders to form a broad coalition against the APC is an indication that the opposition party leaders have learnt their lessons and are prepared to make serious amends in 2017.

Some political analysts are of the opinion that opposition leaders have no chance of unseating Tinubu if they do not come together under one umbrella.

“Whatever name they call it, coalition or alliance, for me, they just have to come together if they want to have any chance against Tinubu. Peter Obi is a big factor, you can’t rule him out, especially with the support he has among the youth. Atiku did well in 2019 because of Peter Obi, for me, he won that election.

“So, if he is returning back to the PDP, fine for them. I think even the El-Rufai that is talking now do not have the political clout compared to Obi, even in the North,” Lanre Lawal, a political analyst, told BusinessDay.

Although there are fears in some quarters that if care is not taken and discussion about who takes what is not agreed on time, such a coalition may fail to yield the desired result, because of in-fighting and ego among the leaders.

Itoro Samson, political analyst, said the decision of Obi to return to the PDP could be a wise one, noting that it is apparent standing alone in 2027 may be a fruitless effort.

“Peter Obi’s return to PDP is a good decision, coalition is a wise move also, it is the same thing they did in 2015 that should be done and each of them knows that is the way out.

“My fear is that some may stand as spoilers who can be sponsored by the APC and if the leaders can put their personal ego aside, it will work.

“I believe they should decide who gets what from the beginning so that it does not bring problems later,” he said.

But Lucky Uduwe, a university lecturer, disagrees about the success of such a coalition, noting that the chance of opposition political parties making much impact under President Tinubu is very slim, because he understands such moves perfectly well.

“Tinubu is one leader who believes the winner takes all; so, rather than build strong opposition, members of the opposition political parties will keep running to the APC to seek greener pasture thereby weakening the opposition the more,” Uduwe said.

Questions over El-Rufai’s relevance

The defection of the former Kaduna governor to the SDP has continued to generate debates in the polity. While his supporters argue that his move to the SDP was based on principle, critics suggest it was driven by personal ambition, positioning himself for a possible political comeback in 2027.

However, El-Rufai has on several occasions called for the coalition of opposition parties to defeat Tinubu in 2027 and has been publicly seen with Atiku, while both of them seem to be working as one ahead of 2027.

Last week, after defecting to the SDP, he called on Obi and other political leaders to join him and unseat the President in 2027.

Expectedly, the APC has brushed off El-Rufai’s departure, with the presidency dismissing it as driven by inordinate ambition.

However, many believe El-Rufai’s exit from the ruling party carries deep political undercurrents that could reshape the dynamics ahead of the 2027 elections, considering that he was instrumental in the formation of the APC and a staunch ally of former President Muhammadu Buhari, observers say El-Rufai’s departure raises critical questions that could come back to hunt the ruling party.

Many political observers note that El-Rufai’s defection could have ripple effects.

“Although he may not command a nationwide political structure, his ability to shape narratives, especially in northern politics, should not be underestimated,” Temitope Musowo, political analyst, said.

He stressed that his defection from the APC is not just about one man leaving a party, but a reflection of deeper tensions within the APC.

“Since taking power in 2023, Tinubu has had to balance competing interests within the ruling party, from former Buhari loyalists to his people. The cracks within the APC are becoming more visible, and if not managed properly, they could deepen before 2027”, Musowo added.

But Tunde Balogun, public affairs commentator said the former governor leaving the APC at this time can be considered of no effect because his political relevance even in his own state has been greatly reduced.

He noted that this is because many people even in Northern Nigeria believe that his relevance outside political office is very little.

“His goodwill is very little and no longer considered a political heavyweight, especially considering what his successor has done in Kaduna,” he said.