The rank and file of the ruling All Progressives Congress and indeed all of Nigeria are in bathed breath as they all await the arrival tonight of President Muhammadu Buhari who has been away in Spain.
Before flying off to Madrid, Buhari had made it clear to the powerful state governors of his party that he will expect them to support his controversial bid to anoint a success from among the motley crowd of contestants in his party who seek to fly the APC flag at next year’s presidential election.
At that meeting, the president did not identify the presidential aspirant on whose behalf he was seeking the support of the governors but they have since then held several meetings without reaching any consensus. This failure has led to heightened anxiety among party leaders from across the country.
Some of the leaders fear that the party could be heading for unprecedented bickering ahead of the presidential primaries scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, especially after the outburst of Bola Ahmed Tinubu one of the aspirants who claimed that he expects nothing less from Buhari than to choose him to be the country’s next president.
Some see the outburst as perhaps an indication that Tinubu sees the handwriting on the wall which does not favour him and he is crying out against the huge forces now ranged against his candidacy.
While Tinubu was lashing out in Abeokuta on Thursday, five governors of his party went along with the party chairman to hold sudden and unscheduled talks with Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, himself an aspirant.
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Among the five who went to see Osinbajo were Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti and former governor of Ogun state Ibikunle Amosun both of whom are aspirants. This is leading some party watchers in Abuja to say that the possibility of the two dropping out of the race for the vice president may have been discussed at the meeting.
BusinessDay has also now learnt that before Buhari left for Spain, he had held a meeting with his number two but only time will tell if Osinbajo gets the president’s support at the primaries as many now expect.
The New Electoral Act appears to have created a 12 month lame-duck session at the State and Federal levels and this lame duck session while not any better for governance presents less risk for state governments than it does for the federal government.
For this reason, senior APC figures including some in government say the choice of the party’s presidential candidate should tilt towards Osinbajo given the challenges Nigeria faces including insecurity which has become an underlying risk to the economy and social fabric of our country.
According to them, it is arguable that the only candidate APC can pick if a proper national risk assessment is done, is Vice President Osinbajo.
One group highlight the real danger of Two Royal Courts and the associated risks saying that if the presidential ticket goes to anyone outside the Aso Rock Villa Nigeria can expect more drift and a worsening of policy direction.
“Imagine having a lame duck President and a disappointed Vice President for 12 months. In an election cycle of 5 months this is not as big of a risk (i.e. Primaries in November as we had before the new Electoral Act),” one senior government official said.
“Nigerian Politicians and Political Appointees (include heads of MDA’s) are like Sharks. When they smell blood in the water they attack. Lagos or any other location for a non Villa Presidential nominee (for the ruling party) will become a Mecca. For 12 full months we will have 2 Presidents. An official one and an unofficial one. Everyone will be tripping over themselves to gain favour with the presumed incoming President. This could have disastrous consequences for Governance and Security.”
Another said “for Mr. President, the only safe way for his powers not to be significantly eroded is to maintain status quo and the Villa’s supremacy by selecting his deputy to succeed him.”
