2027: APC gains edge as opposition’s single candidate agreement collapses

…ADC, NDC, APM, LP, others move to field presidential candidates

…2023 scenario may replay with Tinubu’s re-election bid – Analysts

Fresh cracks within Nigeria’s opposition bloc ahead of the 2027 presidential election are fueling growing confidence within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) that it could retain power if rival parties fail to unite behind a single candidate.

Political realignments across the African Democratic Congress (ADC), National Democratic Congress (NDC), Allied People’s Movement (APM) and Labour Party (LP) have triggered fresh debates over whether the opposition can avoid a repeat of the divided contest that paved the way for President Bola Tinubu’s victory in 2023.

Within the ADC, Atiku Abubakar, former vice president; Rotimi Amaechi, former transport minister, and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, an economist, have locked horns for the party’s presidential ticket.

In the NDC, Peter Obi, former presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso, former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), are said to be weighing a joint presidential arrangement after leaving the ADC amid lingering internal disputes.

Meanwhile, Seyi Makinde, Oyo State governor, has openly declared his presidential ambition on the platform of the Allied People’s Movement (APM).

“The time to reset Nigeria is now. Therefore, today, I, Oluseyi Abiodun Makinde, announce my intention to contest for the position of the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” Makinde declared. He disclosed his ambition during a political rally in Ibadan attended by APM officials, party members and supporters of his faction within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Sources within the Labour Party also hinted that the party may eventually field its own presidential candidate, a development analysts say could further divide opposition votes. Political observers argue that the emergence of multiple opposition candidates could hand the APC a major advantage, much like the scenario that played out during the 2023 presidential election.

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The concerns are coming despite earlier efforts by opposition leaders to forge a united front against Tinubu ahead of the 2027 poll.

At a summit in Ibadan few weeks ago, several opposition parties agreed in principle to support a single presidential candidate capable of challenging the APC. However, the alliance began to collapse days later after some parties distanced themselves from the meeting and denied endorsing any anti-Tinubu coalition.

The situation worsened after Obi and Kwankwaso exited the ADC for the newly registered NDC, citing unresolved internal disagreements within the party, a move many political watchers described as a major setback to the Ibadan coalition talks.

Farouk Aliyu, a chieftain of the APC, said the opposition would struggle to defeat the APC if it failed to unite behind one candidate. Speaking during an interview on ARISE News, Aliyu urged opposition figures to set aside personal ambitions and rally around a consensus candidate.

“If they really want to give us real opposition, they should forget about their differences. I’m giving free counselling now. Let them rally around one person, all of them, then beat us head on,” he said.

Similarly, Salihu Lukman, former national vice chairman (North West) of the APC, who is now a key figure in the ADC, warned that the opposition could squander its chances in 2027 if political leaders continue to pursue individual ambitions instead of collective interests.

Lukman stated in a political commentary titled, “Re: Early Outline of the Permutations for 2027″ that Nigeria requires a new political culture driven by selflessness and genuine competition.

“Everything must be done to create a new political reality in the country. If APC is a failure, we must not allow the ambitions of politicians to hold us captive. 2027 presents us with the opportunity to reorient Nigerian democracy and return it to the path of producing political leaders through competition,” he said.

Also weighing in, Chekwas Okorie, a former presidential candidate, said opposition parties would find it difficult to unseat Tinubu without a coordinated strategy and strong alliance.

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Okorie, however, described the NDC as a potentially significant political force capable of reshaping the opposition landscape ahead of the election.

Akin Osuntokun, Director-General of the Obi-Datti Presidential Campaign Council in 2023, and former Political Adviser to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, said in an interview that the opposition is unable to rally behind a single candidate because the parties involved hold divergent visions of Nigeria’s future.

“It strengthens the APC’s prospects, given the significant advantage the party already enjoys in the dynamics of power politics. Whatever anyone may think, securing the backing of 31 state governors cannot be dismissed as inconsequential,” he added.

Also, Olu Allen, public affairs analyst and writer, stressed the importance of opposition unity, warning that Tinubu’s second term could further weaken democratic competition in the country.

“A second Tinubu term will entrench a corporate dictatorship,” Allen wrote in a recent article. He added that the 2027 election is not just another contest but a defining moment for a democratic Nigeria.

Tinubu, however, has dismissed suggestions that mounting criticism over insecurity and economic hardship could weaken his reelection chances.

Speaking at the Presidential Villa in Abuja while receiving stakeholders from Plateau State led by Governor Caleb Mutfwang recently, the president said he remained determined to seek a second term despite pressure from critics.

“You are playing into the hands of agents, including my enemies, who want to use insecurity to get rid of me. But I’m a very stubborn politician. I just refuse to go. And I will campaign for my second term,” Tinubu said.

The debate over opposition unity has continued to draw comparisons with the 2023 presidential election, in which opposition parties went into the race divided. However, the presidency has said what happened to former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 won’t happen to Tinubu in 2027.

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Putting the 2023 poll on the scale

Tinubu won the election with 8,794,726 votes and secured at least 25 % of the votes cast in 30 states, surpassing the constitutional threshold required for victory.

Atiku, then candidate of the PDP, polled 6,984,520 votes, while Obi of the Labour Party secured 6,101,533 votes. Kwankwaso of the NNPP finished fourth with 1,496,687 votes. However, the contest ended at the Supreme Court, where Tinubu still won.

Several political analysts have argued that the outcome may have been different had the opposition rallied behind a single candidate.

Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed August 19, 2026, for the commencement of campaigns for presidential and National Assembly elections. Governorship and state assembly campaigns are scheduled to begin on September 9, 2026.

The presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on January 16, 2027, while the governorship and state assembly elections are slated for February 6, 2027.