The population of the world reached 8 billion mark on 15 November 2022. India is projected to surpass the population of China as the most populated country in the world this year. To many we have a population crises awaiting us while some countries argue that they can’t see a problem on the horizon at all. Thomas Malthus was an 18th-century British philosopher and economist noted for the Malthusian growth model, an exponential formula used to project population growth.
The theory states that food production will not be able to keep up with growth in the human population, resulting in disease, famine, war, and calamity. A noted statistician and proponent of political economy, Malthus founded the Statistical Society of London. Malthus’ theories were later used to justify British colonial policies that aggravated the Irish Potato Famine.
Malthus predicted that natural population growth would tend to outpace agricultural output, ultimately resulting in famines and other catastrophes until the population falls back below a sustainable level.
This relative abundance causes a new increase in fertility, resulting in a long cycle of overpopulation and population collapse.
The theory is now considered to be largely discredited by some economists, as industrialized farming techniques have allowed food production to scale much faster than Malthus anticipated.
However, the abundance of food does necessarily translate into access to food. Aside from pockets of wars around the world that have brought food security to the front burner, the problem of food storage and management is proving a hard nut to crack in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agriculturists for many years have complained of our lack of capacity in Nigeria to properly store our farm yields coupled with nearly a decade of self-inflicted insurgency the Malthusian model is coming to reality in our clime.
According to the world population clock, Nigeria is the sixth most populated country in the world with an estimated population of 219,000,000. However, a closer look at the 10 most populated countries in the world would show that our economy is the most fragile amongst them (China, India, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia, and Mexico) The other 9 countries have some level of industrial development and some level of food security and sufficiency.
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While the debate is still on about the ideal and sustainable population of the world, many countries are comfortable with their population size and are not threatened by the expansion in their population. We think the country is overpopulated because we have mismanaged virtually all our national assets and our dependence on other countries in most things that we need is legendary.
If we persist in producing what we do not eat and eat what we do not produce the thinking that we are overpopulated would remain. According to the late Professor C.S Momoh of the University of Lagos. As long as you can feed, cloth, and productively engage your population, you should banish the thought of overpopulation. The late Professor never thought the economy would be so mismanaged that we would not be able to manage our own petroleum resources or inflation would be at double digits and we would be jumping from one recession to another.
Dr. Eric Eromosele Usifoh of the University of Cape Coast in Ghana says “I think Nigeria is not over-populated, we are simply under-utilized and under-valued. We have a productive population that is capable of transforming Nigeria to accommodate and cater to the population. If Nigeria develops her potential rather than the usual mismanagement of the economy, we may even need more people to support our productive sector.
Over-population seems like a Western mindset that seeks to promote individual flourishing and isolate social relations. When we get engrossed in consumerism, we hardly have enough and assume that the population is the problem rather than our greed”
The discussion, therefore, goes back to where it started good Leadership is Central to National Survival. Nigeria must rise again and no foreigner would help us achieve the task . If you “Japa” today you must “Jawa” tomorrow to help in the task of national rebirth. The most pathetic person in the world is someone who has sight but has no vision says Helen Keller Nigeria open your eyes be visionary.
Michael Akpofure Umogun is a chartered marketer and public policy analyst
