Why Nigeria should not treat Indian COVID variant as a distant threat

The Covid-19 wobble currently overstretching the limits of India’s health system could be nearer to Nigeria than perceived with nose-diving testing rate across the country and general relaxation of measures against transmission, health and disease experts fear.

Nigeria seems to be enjoying a worry-free era of daily caseloads often below 100 infections despite remarkably low testing and weak capacity to detect new variants, opening of public spaces, growing international air traffic and individually managed quarantine sessions.

States including Bayelsa, Benue, Kebbi, Kogi and Kwara saw less than 20 cases in the week ended April 25.

From mid-January to mid-March, these were typical features of Indian cities such as Delhi populated by 18.98 million, Pune 3.124 million, Mumbai 12.48 million, Thane 1.887 million and Nagpur 2.406 million. Daily cases ranged below 500 and sometimes 200, with gatherings of multitude going on crept.

Now, it has taken only a more dangerous variant of the COVID-19 virus to upturn the fate of the world’s largest producer of vaccines – sending millions of vaccines across borders some weeks ago – into a world stage for aid donations, even prayers.

The country of 1.3 billion people on April 29 became the second-worst COVID-19 affected country in the world with overall 1,83,68,212 cases and 2,04,812 fatalities recorded.

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Delhi, Pune, Mumbai, Thane and Nagpur now lead the worst affected cities in India with the highest number of COVID-19 cases.

In what experts believe to be an underestimation, more than 2,000 lives in India are lost to COVID-19 each day, according to John Hopkins University coronavirus data. The relentless rise in infection has escalated into oxygen crisis as hospitals petition the High Courts to seek immediate oxygen supply and foreign countries rise to occasion.

India’s government waited until October 2020, eight months after the pandemic began, to invite bids for a $27 million contract to place oxygen generation systems inside more than 150 district hospitals, according to an investigation by a local news website in India. Six months later, most still are not up and running.

Now, the Africa Centre for Disease has warned that the trouble in closing in on the least affected continent since the pandemic. Uganda has confirmed the arrival of the Indian coronavirus variant and neighbouring countries have started beefing up surveillance.

“I am afraid for Nigeria. How many vaccinations have we done? Do we know when the next batch of vaccines is coming? Do you believe all these numbers you are getting from NCDC? I don’t because many of our states are not testing,” Oyewale Tomori, a professor of virology, said.

“We may not have festivals or political campaigns like India did but we are looking forward to the end of the Ramadan festivity. Who says we won’t go out again and spread the virus? Those are the issues.”

Disruption in vaccine supply is one of the fallout of India crisis that is affecting Nigeria’s vaccination goals.

India towards March end blocked vaccines export to prioritise local vaccinations, putting a strain supplies to COVAX, the global initiative backing free provision of vaccines for up to 20 percent of Nigeria’s population.

It has left Nigeria clinging to doses to approximately 4 million doses received early in March, while exploring other options including Johnson and Johnson.

More than a year after the pandemic hit, Nigeria has tested only 1,912,628, less than 1 percent of its population estimated at 206 million by World Bank.

Over 1,191,563, much less than 1 percent of the entire population have received first doses at a time when new variants are challenging the efficacy of complete doses in people.

Nigeria is not at its best picking up new variants quickly, showing that without getting back to the drawing board of adhering to non-pharmaceutical measures, a third wave could be in the offing.