What will happen if Tinubu fails to get National Assembly approval for Rivers’ emergency rule

President Bola Tinubu is struggling to secure National Assembly approval for his declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State, a decision that has sparked political tension and constitutional debate.

On Tuesday, Tinubu declared a state of emergency in the oil-rich state, suspending Governor Siminalayi Fubara, Deputy Governor Ngozi Odu, and all elected officials for six months. He also appointed Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas (rtd), a former chief of naval staff, as sole administrator to oversee the state during the emergency period.

While Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) grants the president power to declare a state of emergency, it requires legislative approval to remain in effect. According to Section 305(2), the president must immediately notify the National Assembly, which must vote on the proclamation within two days if in session, or ten days if not. If approval is not granted within this period, the proclamation automatically lapses.

At the time of Tinubu’s announcement, the National Assembly was in session, meaning the deadline for approval is today (Thursday). If the legislature fails to ratify the proclamation, Tinubu will be forced to revoke it, effectively reinstating Fubara and other suspended officials.

Sources within the National Assembly indicate that securing the necessary votes has been challenging. Both chambers convened on Wednesday but failed to deliberate on the emergency rule, postponing discussions to Thursday.

With 360 members in the House of Representatives and 109 in the Senate, Tinubu needs at least 240 votes in the House and 73 in the Senate for approval. Conversely, only 36 senators or 121 House members can vote it down.

Many lawmakers, particularly from opposition parties, are reportedly unconvinced of the necessity of emergency rule, especially the suspension of elected officials and the appointment of a sole administrator. Also, some lawmakers are currently in Saudi Arabia for Umrah and Ramadan, further complicating efforts to secure a two-thirds majority.

Read also: State of emergency: Can the president suspend a governor? Here’s what the constitution says

Amid the controversy, Nigerians are closely watching the National Assembly’s decision. Atedo Peterside, economist and founder of Stanbic IBTC Bank, stressed the need for transparency in the voting process.

“On the Rivers State Crisis, all eyes are on the National Assembly. A two-thirds majority cannot be achieved via a voice vote. Members voting for or against the Resolution to ratify the President’s Emergency actions must identify themselves and cast their votes individually,” Peterside said.

As the deadline looms, the political and constitutional stakes remain high. The outcome of today’s legislative session will determine whether Tinubu’s emergency rule in Rivers stands or falls.