The 2023 general election could reverse the trend of low voter turnout which has characterised Nigeria’s elections in the last two decades, but the elections may be marred by insecurity, a new study report by Nigeria’s geopolitical Intelligence platform, SBM has revealed.
The SBM’s report revealed that unlike in previous elections, more Nigerians are willing to vote in 2023, with 43 percent as first-time voters and mostly young people, but warned that despite the rise in Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) collection, if the security threat across Nigeria remains unchecked it could deter people from coming out to vote.
The report stated that 6,588 respondents were surveyed mid-way into the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), PVCs collection time-table, showing that 97 percent of respondents desire to vote, while 94 percent completed the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) process (physical capture); 90 percent tried to pick up their PVCs and 79 percent successfully picked up their PVCs.
The report, however, revealed that the worsening spate of insecurity across Nigeria affected people from collecting their PVCs, with 24 percent of respondents encountering violence, while only 30 percent were able to get their PVCs the first time they tried.
“Regarding location, there are more first-time voters in the more urbanised locations like Abuja, Kaduna and Anambra, except in Lagos where the trend is reversed,” part of the report stated.
The SBM report also showed that the decision of INEC to streamline the process had positively impacted, because 42 percent of respondents successfully transferred their PVCs, with Lagos and Oyo leading.
“Meanwhile, Cross River, Imo and Anambra had the highest number of people registering for PVCs for the first time”, the report added.
It further pointed out that the present activities of extremist groups and terrorists in the north, and secessionist groups in southern Nigeria was capable of intimidating eligible voters from coming out to exercise their franchise.
Meanwhile, only 30 percent of Ebonyi respondents were unable to complete physical capture at INEC offices, which correlates with 31 percent of them, saying they have not tried to pick up their PVCs.
According to the report, “In addition, 55 percent of those who tried to pick up their PVCs in Ebonyi were unable to get them, while Anambra’s stood at 42 percent.
“Over 30 percent of the respondents in Ogun, Abuja, Bauchi and Cross River could not pick up their PVCs when they tried, while Rivers and Kaduna had above 20 percent. These locations require urgent attention from INEC and civil society advocacy groups”.
The SMB report added that trend where older respondents had more successful PVC pick-up attempts, than the young people calls for concern among stakeholders.
Nigeria’s elections have been characterised by violence and electoral manipulation in the last two decades, mainly due to the desperation of politicians to win at all cost.
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Ahead of this year’s elections Nigeria’s quest to conduct credible and peaceful elections has been overshadowed by violence and threats of insecurity.
Attacks during political rallies have increased in recent times. Mid-November, the convoy of the opposition’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, was attacked by suspected hoodlums in Maiduguri, a northeast city believed to be a stronghold of the ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) shortly after his campaign rally.
A similar situation occurred the same week as some hoodlums also pelted Ahmed Tinubu, APC presidential candidate, at the launch of his campaigns in Kano, the northwest city.
