Headline inflation has risen for two consecutive months in Nigeria after the index hit 11.61 percent in October 2019, the highest in 17 months, on the back of surging food prices.
Despite the full-blown harvest season in October, food inflation surged by 58bps to 14.09percent, the highest since April 2018, as the impact of all land borders closure continued to take a toll on food price.
Against the surprised uptick recorded in the prior month, core inflation tapered by 7bps to 8.88percent, on account of the subdued energy prices.
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Energy inflation dipped by 42bps from a year ago, as food inflation widened by 3bps to 1.33percent month-on-month, while core inflation dipped significantly by 15bps to 0.74% m/m. Given the recent decision to extend border closure till early next year, together with the festive induced demand, analysts expect food inflation to widened in November.
Despite CBN’s hard stance on the currency and muted energy pressure, analysts at Cordros Securities expect core inflation to increase marginally, given the low base from the corresponding period in the prior year.
“Overall, we now expect headline inflation to sustain its upward trajectory, expanding to 11.87% y/y (1.04% m/m),”
