In the streets of Lagos, many youths are still struggling to believe the realities of COVID-19 concerning infections, recovery, and deaths. But data from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) shows that they are more at risk.
From the early days of the virus’ spread, the aged and those with underlying illness were said to be the most vulnerable and susceptible to contract the virus.
Although global bodies are yet to say otherwise, Nigeria is having it differently as its youth population (both and female) seems to be more prone to the virus.
NCDC’s COVID-19 situation report as of May 17, 2020, also shows that more cases have been confirmed in males than females—all within the youth population of the country.
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According to the data, males between 11 to 20 years account for nearly 400 cases, those within 21 to 30 years and 41 to 50 years account for 800 cases, while 31 to 40 years make 1, 000 cases.
But 200 cases have been confirmed in females between 11 to 20 years. While female patients between the of 41 to 50 account for slight over 200 cases, those between 21 to 30 years and 31 to 40 years make up 400 cases of Nigeria’s total confirmed cases which now stands at over 6, 000.
While this may engender some concerns about what impact it would have on the economy as the virus continues to sicken Nigeria’s working demography from early working age (15 -24) to mature working age (55-64), analysts are unperturbed.
For them, it is not a surprise that more youth are getting infected because Nigeria has a very young demography with a median age standing around 18 years. Hence, it is not out of place that younger people are having the virus.
However, the key impact would be in terms of the impact the virus itself on the near term micro-economic balance, which could affect the level of investment in the economy, said Abimbola Omotola, a micro and fixed-income analyst at Chapel Hill Denham.
Omotola said that the key thing lacking in Nigeria is not labour alone, and argues that Nigeria has surplus labour. He stated that the major issue is about capital investments which involve both public and private, and the sustainability of investment growth during this period.
“In an environment of low oil prices and whatnot, naturally, investment will slow. So, the biggest challenge for policymakers is to find sustainable ways to deal with the virus and its impact. It could involve getting a vaccine and gradually opening up the global economy to get investment flowing again,” said Omotola of Chapel Hill Denham.
Equity research analyst at Greenwich Trust Limited, Akintunde-Dare Sulaiman said the demography affected is not important, rather, the impact of the general lack of economic activities.
Already in a shambles, experts say the Nigerian economy is driven by the energy market (oil) and foreign exchange. With both drivers now challenged by the novel coronavirus, all sectors of the economy will be threatened following a reduction in capital importation and low income from the energy sector.
“Regardless of the faction of gender it affects, it’s just the idea of lack of activities in the economy that will make it impact the economy, not really the gender thing. You see a lot of things slow down, there is a reduction in production. When capital importation is slow, manufacturing is slow, nothing is going to happen anymore,” Sulaiman said.
