An economic ‘think-tank’ has set sail in Port Harcourt, capital of the south-south, to help think outside the box against the fast-approaching economic disorder.
The brains behind it are led by Silva Opuala-Charles, a professor of economics who worked for 15 years in the banking industry and five years as commissioner for finance in Bayelsa State before founding the Garden City Premier Business School (GCPBS).
Opuala-Charles, the president of the Garden City Business Think-Tank set the tone of the discuss and overall think-tank at the inaugural Garden City Business Breakfast on Thursday, March 6, 2025, saying it’s a thing of great lamentation that whereas Lagos business belt powers ahead in gross domestic product (GDP), the entire south-south is far behind.
He said Lagos is now over $107bn in GDP while south-south or Niger Delta is far less. Setting the tone for a panel discussion moderated by him, Opuala-Charles made it clear it is important for leaders in the Niger Delta or South-South to understand what is dragging the Port Harcourt business district back.
“They should ask how to compete with Lagos again. $4bn came to Africa for startups, it should be interesting to know how much of this got to the Port Harcourt belt.
“The leaders should ask how to position the region to benefit in businesses and funds flying around Africa and Nigeria.”
He warned that by what is approaching, if any state or region is not ready when change comes, the entity will be crushed. “You will have yourselves to blame because you are not prepared.”
On Trumpism (or Trump 2:0), he said this concept will affect global trade. “Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries will crash. Are we as a nation and as a region (Niger Delta) ready? The World Health Organisation (WHO) will be affected. Note that the Far Right (ultra-right, extreme conservatives who are seen as extremely nationalistic) uprising is gaining ground in the US and Europe. See Germany election and the party that just won.
“Take a look at the Middle East and ask where we stand if trouble escalates there (are we able to increase oil export?), or if peace breaks out there to crash oil prices (are we able to survive oil price crash?). Let us find out what we produce (oil and gas) and what affects it globally such as Middle issues and Trump’s oil policy of pumping all the oil there is to pump.”
He reminded Nigerians that trade wars are starting, and that this creates geopolitical wars. “Cost of living will soar but that is why Joe Biden lost the election (or performed poorly in the primaries and got replaced and his party still lost). Nigeria export is threatened because of tariffs. We already run a high-cost economy that makes our products too expensive in the international market.
“If there is increase in shale oil; then, oil revenue of Nigeria will crash. There will be oil glut. How will Nigeria balance its budget? How will borrowing be? How will salaries be paid if the recurrent expenditure of the budget overshoots income?”
Opuala-Charles said Nigerians should worry about the possibility of the Dollar surging again and if inflation surging too. “Will unrest not develop in Nigeria, or in some regions? Will crime rate not go up?”
On Trump’s policies, he asked, will this affect the budget for education, health, etc? “What about diaspora remittances which seems to be huge at $6bn in 2024? Nigerians are said to be hiding in the US to avoid arrest and deportation. Are the remittances not threatened?
He noted that 20m Nigerians are outside the country contributing more than 200m at home. “Debt service has reduced from 94% to 68%. Can this be sustained if the above things happen? Diversification has been on the card for decades without any meaningful result.”
A panelist and professor, Lezaasi L. Torbira, warned that shocks are coming and asked how Nigeria can be shielded.
He said: “Nigeria must return to agriculture. In Rivers State, there is land everywhere and all states have land. There is fish farm in Tai LGA. There is solid mineral in most states. Every state must now think, now.”
Another panelist said: “What is happening in the US is the rise of nationalists. In AI, Trump is targeting $500m. AI is ability of machines to read and write and act like humans. Nigeria should set up think-tank to work out what the country needs in AI, in Blue Economy, in StartUp, etc.”
Chedu Onyekachukwu, another panelist, said there is need for Nigeria to provide cheaper solutions in tech and find a way to use tech to crash oil production processes and excel.
The moderator (Opuala-Charles) asked specifically what Nigeria should do in the face of Trumpism which he said will lead to resource slump. Panelists listed idea such as: “Source for raw materials at home and reduce demand for forex; CBN should support local producers by providing cheap funds for investments; crash importation with cheap labour in Nigeria; and that Nigeria should aggressively target the Africa market.”
The FG should generate revenue to augment the aids expected from the US. The Civil Society should help by making big donors in Nigeria such as Dangote, Tony Elumelu, etc, take over the donations from the US.
On key industries to focus on, they pointed to Agriculture such as fish to help Nigeria. They regretted that Governments capture massive lands for agriculture but nothing happens there for ages. They again advised Nigeria to process crude locally and get all the derivatives and benefits.
On hanging fruits, the think-tank suggested use of AI techs to help industry, and do processing in agric and crude.
The panel urged governors to surround themselves with business people and investors as Trump has done so they think business all the time, instead of with hoodlums and empty brains who only think of how to loot and how to carry ballot boxes.
They urged every government to create investments for citizens to manage profitably. One panelist said: Gov Sim Fubara did well by conducting the first ever economic summit in recent times which gave birth to the Rivers State Investment Promotion Agency (RSIPA) and boost in the Tourism Development Agency, and the action he took to revive Rivers Micro Finance Agency (RIMA) with the N4bn support to SMEs.
“There are opportunities in Rivers States. Let states form think tanks on businesses and investments and how their governments can kickstart some and hand over to seasoned managers to run and own. LGAs ca also do this. Voters must now look for brains to vote into offices.
An expert explained the reason for the rot in the system with the theory that explains policies and the economy. “It is about the conflict in ‘Organic view’ and the ‘Mechanistic view’. Organic view is by those who believe in using government power to spread wealth and opportunities so society can be good. Mechanistic view is by those who believe in capturing power and acquire things for themselves and their friends so they escape from want.
“It is whichever group that captures power that will decide the fate of that society and the happiness in it.
During open comments, some experts in the audience said 70% of house buyers are in the Diaspora. “India has leveraged on their Diaspora strength to develop strong industries back home and form a big link between the two Indias.”
One Boma Jack of Port City, Onne cried out saying: “People are fleeing Rivers State. When we make calls to prospective investors to come to the new Onne Port City, when they hear it is in Port Harcourt, they shout, oh. They are scared. It is a major concern.”
She wants the think-tank to find solution to this malady, though the think-tank placed embargo on politics talks.
Another expert said: “Funds are fleeing to Lagos. Majority of those fleeing into Lagos are from the Port Harcourt business zone.”
The guest speaker, Shuaibu Idris, explained why Trump had support in what he is doing. “Research in a US city showed that whereas the whites give 120 births in a year, the other ethnic groups and visitors give 1,600. They are scared. That is why the ultra-right is rising. There is something called Project 2025. Trump seems to be implementing it but had denied it.”
Read also: A breakfast that may transform the Niger Delta
Seeing good in Trumpism:
Idris rather advised Nigeria to see some positives in Trumpism. He advised the FG to be on red alert over the consequences of the numerous trade and immigration policies being churned out daily by President Donald Trump of the United States of America and work out their defences which he said may become Nigeria’s strength in the coming years.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the governors were urged to consider Trump’s policy on workforce rightsizing.
Idris, a management expert and fellow of several institutes said the governments must look beyond sentiments and consider the rationale in the rationalization policy.
He said the FG must set up a think-tank to deliberate on the various policies from the White House and come up with responses for Nigeria. He called it Trump 2:0.
Idris, who headed the administration unit of the Dangote Industries and represented Dangote in the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) Council said Trump’s single objective is to get value for money paid civil servants by paying only those who had jobs to do. He listed the various policies and Executive Orders that have direct and indirect impact on Nigeria and asked Nigeria to move fast or be crushed by change.
For Nigeria, Idris stated, those working are hardly paid well enough to make them proud, but that the recurrent provision in the annual budget is spread too thinly to very many workers such that at the end, neither the workers nor the employers are usually happy.
On other Trump’s policies which he called hurricane, Idris advised Nigerians to understand that there is a rise of nationalism sweeping across America and Europe, pointing to the victory of the ultra-right party in Germany in the last week elections.
Speaking on ‘Trump 2:0’ which refers to the second coming of Trump as president, the management expert said the bottom line should be seen by Nigerians as the desire of most Americans to spend on what benefits America first.
He said Trump was winning support because most Americans see the policies as being made for them. “They do not see any point in spending around the world whereas they have needs at home”.
Urging Nigeria to thread on the path of caution, he noted that Trump’s intervention in the middle east may create fallouts Nigeria has to prepare for.
He said the war in Ukraine may end faster than expected and grains would be cheap all over the world. He also asked Nigeria to expect cheaper oil soon because Trump is going to pump oil and the bring down the price. He said high oil prices benefitted Nigeria over the years.
He also warned about repatriation of not less than 2000 Nigerians from the US soon which he said may reduce Diaspora remittances. Idris feared that African Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA) may be affected as the hurricane sweeps along.
For way out, he advised Nigeria to set up powerful think-tank right away to think out ways of reacting to Trump 2:0 just as he said India has just done. “Copy the Indian style by creating a hub where tech people work for companies abroad and where agro products could be processed for export.
He feared that signals from the US indicate that apart from the USAID scheme that is being shut down along with the World Health Organisation (WHO) funding, the US may pull out of others such as World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), etc. He urged Nigeria to move fast because those who do not act fast in the face of change usually crash.
He said: “We have four difficult years, and another Trumplike person may succeed him, making another eight years of Americanism after Trump. The earlier we study Trumpism and take decisions, the better for Nigeria and Africa”.
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