Africa needs $411bn transport investment to unlock AfCFTA’s full potential – ECA

Antonio Pedro, deputy executive secretary (Programme Support) at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), has said there is urgent need for a massive $411 billion investment in transport infrastructure and equipment to maximise the benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Speaking at the Committee of Experts of the 2025 Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development held on Wednesday, Pedro noted that the findings of a 2022 ECA study, which projected that AfCFTA implementation would require significant transport investments, including $4 billion for 135 vessels, $25 billion for 243 aircraft, $36 billion for 169,000 rail wagons, and a staggering $345 billion for over 2.2 million trucks.

Pedro said that strategic investments in railway infrastructure and fleets alone could increase intra-African trade by rail from the current level of less than 1% to nearly 7%. He commended multilateral development banks for stepping up their efforts to make Africa investment-ready and highlighted ECA’s role in supporting the de-risking of investments across the continent.

However, Pedro noted that one of the biggest challenges hindering AfCFTA’s full realisation is the lack of awareness, particularly among Africa’s private sector. He stressed that without knowledge and participation from small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs), intra-African trade would not witness the desired transformation. He called for comprehensive, coordinated, and inclusive actions to ensure AfCFTA’s success, aligning with the theme of the upcoming ministerial conference: “Proposing Transformative Strategic Actions” to advance AfCFTA implementation.

Pedro outlined the key objectives of the 2025 Economic Report on Africa, which would be launched at the ministerial segment. The report aims to assess the progress of AfCFTA implementation, provide empirical evidence of its trade-driven integration potential, identify key challenges, and propose actionable recommendations for bridging existing gaps.

Highlighting the need for bold and creative strategies, Pedro pointed out that while 85% of Africa’s total exports are currently directed outside the continent, primarily consisting of raw commodities, AfCFTA presents an opportunity to shift this pattern. Intra-African trade, though still small, is more diversified, with a significant portion comprising industrial goods. This, he said, makes AfCFTA a potential game-changer in promoting Africa’s industrialisation.

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ECA’s latest empirical assessment projects that eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers under AfCFTA could increase intra-African trade by 45% by 2045. The biggest gains are expected in the agrifood and industrial sectors, providing opportunities for value addition, industrialisation, and food security. This, Pedro stated, necessitates a tightly integrated trade and industrial policy framework.

Referring to ECA’s longstanding efforts in promoting industrialisation through trade, Pedro cited the commission’s 2015 Economic Report on Africa, which called for strategic trade policies to overcome market and institutional barriers that hinder Africa’s export competitiveness. He noted that ECA had been actively promoting value addition, particularly through initiatives such as the DRC-Zambia battery and electric vehicle transboundary special economic zone.

Pedro also pointed out major policy bottlenecks stalling AfCFTA’s success, particularly the slow implementation of the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons. Adopted in January 2018, the protocol had seen only four ratifications, the last being Niger in 2019. He described this delay as unacceptable, urging African leaders to act decisively to remove barriers that prevent the free movement of goods, services, and people across the continent.

He stress the need for compelling, evidence-based analysis to counter resistance and drive the ratification of key protocols under AfCFTA, including those on Investment, Competition, and Intellectual Property, adopted in February 2023. Beyond protocols, Pedro called for the accelerated implementation of the 2012 Action Plan for Boosting Intra-African Trade (BIAT), covering trade policy, trade facilitation, infrastructure, trade finance, trade information, and market integration.

Illustrating the current infrastructure gaps, Pedro referenced a 2021 ECA trade-decision modeling exercise, which found that for Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is more “trade-distant” than China or the United States, despite Yaoundé being only 1,591.6 km from Kinshasa compared to the 10,982 km distance to Beijing. He argued that optimising economic corridors and infrastructure linkages is critical to unlocking AfCFTA’s full potential.

Pedro however urged African policymakers, investors, and businesses to take decisive action, stressing that Africa cannot afford to miss the opportunities presented by AfCFTA. “The time to act is now,” he declared, calling for visionary leadership and strategic investments to make Africa a global trade powerhouse.