As 2027 campaigns near, hardship threatens to overshadow reform gains

As political parties prepare to commence campaigns for the 2027 general election next month, many Nigerians are entering the electoral season with a sense of frustration rather than optimism.

Three years after President Bola Tinubu assumed office and launched some of the most far-reaching economic reforms in decades, the gap between government assurances and the daily realities of citizens remains wide. While officials point to improving economic indicators as evidence that the reforms are working, many households continue to grapple with rising living costs, shrinking purchasing power and worsening poverty.

For millions of Nigerians, the question is no longer whether the reforms were necessary but when, if ever, their benefits will become visible in their everyday lives.

The administration has repeatedly argued that the removal of petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market were unavoidable decisions needed to rescue the economy from years of distortions. Government officials maintain that the difficult adjustments are beginning to produce positive outcomes and that the country is gradually moving towards economic stability.

Recent economic data appears to support part of that argument. Nigeria’s foreign reserves have risen above $51 billion, their highest level in almost two decades. Economic growth accelerated to about 3.87 percent in 2025, while international credit rating agencies have acknowledged improvements in the country’s fiscal position. Public revenues have also increased significantly following the end of fuel subsidies and reforms in the foreign exchange market.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) echoed some of these positive developments in its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update.

“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the Fund stated.

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That single sentence captures the contradiction defining Nigeria’s economy today.

At the macro level, the country appears more stable than it was three years ago. At the household level, many citizens say life has become considerably harder.

Across urban centres and rural communities, the effects of inflation continue to dominate daily conversations. Food prices remain elevated despite periodic declines in headline inflation. Transportation costs consume a larger portion of household incomes. Rent, healthcare and education expenses have risen sharply, forcing families to make difficult choices about spending priorities.

The result is an economy where positive national statistics coexist with deepening hardship.

For many Nigerians, the reforms have translated into immediate pain with few visible rewards. While government revenues have improved, citizens often question whether those gains have translated into better public services, improved infrastructure or stronger social protection.

This disconnect has become increasingly significant as the country moves closer to another election cycle.

Citizens who were urged to endure temporary hardship in anticipation of future prosperity are beginning to ask how much longer the waiting period will last.

According to IMF estimates, the proportion of Nigerians living below the national poverty line rose from 56 percent in 2023 to 61 percent in 2024 before reaching 63 percent in 2025.

Those percentages represent more than statistical trends. They reflect the lived experiences of millions of households whose economic conditions have deteriorated despite signs of broader macroeconomic recovery.

The IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation estimated that about 27 million Nigerians faced severe food insecurity, driven by high transport costs, rising food prices and disruptions to agricultural supply chains.

Independent estimates based on World Bank data suggest the situation may be worsening.

“The number of Nigerians living below the national poverty line increased from about 125 million in 2023 to an estimated 143 million in 2026,” said Oluwole Crowther, a Lagos-based economist.

“In practical terms, approximately 18 million additional Nigerians have fallen into poverty within three years.”

An increase of that magnitude is equivalent to adding the population of several states to the ranks of the poor within a relatively short period.

Inflation remains one of the principal drivers of this trend.

Although policymakers have focused on stabilising the macroeconomy, prices for essential goods have continued to outpace income growth for many households. The depreciation of the naira following foreign exchange reforms increased the cost of imported goods and production inputs. Businesses transferred part of those costs to consumers, contributing to sustained price pressures across multiple sectors.

Food inflation has been particularly damaging because lower-income households spend a greater proportion of their earnings on food. Even modest increases in food prices can have severe consequences for vulnerable populations.

This explains why many citizens remain unconvinced by arguments centred on foreign reserves, credit ratings or fiscal balances. While such indicators are important for long-term economic stability, they do not immediately alleviate the pressures confronting households struggling to afford basic necessities.

The challenge facing the government is therefore not merely economic but political.

Economic reforms often require time before their benefits become visible. However, citizens tend to judge governments based on present realities rather than future projections.

As campaign activities gather momentum, opposition parties are likely to focus attention on the hardship experienced by ordinary Nigerians. Rising poverty levels, food insecurity and declining living standards provide fertile ground for political mobilisation.

For the administration, sustaining public support may depend on demonstrating that the gains from reforms can translate into tangible improvements in living conditions before voters head to the polls.

This is where social protection becomes critical. The IMF has consistently argued that countries implementing difficult reforms should complement them with targeted interventions for vulnerable populations.

Rather than broad subsidies that benefit both rich and poor households, the Fund advocates temporary and targeted support for those most affected by economic adjustments while governments rebuild fiscal buffers.

In Nigeria’s case, the effectiveness of such interventions has become a subject of debate. While the government has announced various palliative measures, cash transfer programmes and support initiatives, concerns remain about coverage, transparency and impact. Many vulnerable households report receiving little or no assistance despite being among those most affected by rising prices.

The broader question confronting policymakers is whether macroeconomic stability alone can generate sufficient political and social legitimacy if living standards continue to deteriorate.

The answer may determine the tone of Nigeria’s political conversation over the next several months.

The government insists that the benefits of reform are on the horizon. Many citizens, however, continue to measure progress not by macroeconomic statistics but by what they can afford to buy, eat and save.

As the country approaches another election season, that difference in perception may prove as important as the reforms themselves.