Nigeria needs a 30-year transformative perspective plan

The overall purpose of this two-part article is to make a strong case for a 30-year transformative perspective plan that will give Nigeria a quantum leap from economic doldrums to a vibrant, self-sustaining, and sustainable industrialised economy knocking on the door of a first-world economy or with its right foot firmly rooted in it, like Indonesia. It is a follow-up on two previous articles I did in this column earlier in the year: “The economic reform programme of President Tinubu: Need for a formal blueprint” (February 5, 2024); and “Depoliticise economic planning and management.” (February 12, 2024). What those two articles were essentially advocating was the need for the president to embrace formal economic planning beyond his 8-point agenda by updating and implementing the National Development Plan (NDP) 2021-2025 and depoliticise long-term (perspective) national planning by engendering an all-embracing national stakeholder buy-in into the “Nigeria Agenda 2050” perspective plan and enacting it into law as a basis for national economic and social development planning till the year 2050. The present recommendation of a 30-year perspective plan will necessarily extend the lifespan of the current Nigeria Agenda 2050 to 2055.

The next 30 years are going to be crucial to the very existence and prosperity of Nigeria as a corporate entity. Those who glibly say that Nigeria’s unity or destiny is not negotiable should quickly jettison the idea and embrace the fact that everything about Nigeria is negotiable, including its political and economic destiny. It is with such an informed and patriotic mindset that we can undertake necessary and inevitable political and economic reforms that will secure Nigeria’s place among progressive and prosperous nations of the first world in a few short decades. Small countries like Singapore and the United Arab Emirates have shown it can literally be done by visionary leaders in a generation. China is also showing it can be done by a country with a huge population in a few decades. But there has to be political stability; hence, Nigeria needs political reforms encapsulated in a new truly democratic constitution that will create the structures and national ethos for accountable, democratic governance that will vigorously pursue a transformative economic development agenda for Nigeria.

“Developing countries that want to telescope or shorten their development horizon and catch up with the industrialised world have to necessarily undertake consistent medium to long-term planning.”

Developing countries that want to telescope or shorten their development horizon and catch up with the industrialised world have to necessarily undertake consistent medium to long-term planning. Nigeria’s first National Development Plan (1962–1968) put the economy on the right course but was greatly interrupted by the political crises of the 1960s. The post-civil war Second National Development Plan (1970–1974) recorded tremendous progress in infrastructure development, post-war reconstruction, and overall national development, with the help of windfall oil revenue. The Third National Development Plan (1975–80) addressed broad-based national development issues but was affected by the political transition programme to civilian democratic rule. The Fourth National Development Plan (1981–1986), the first by a civilian government, was generally considered a failure, affected by both the financial crisis of the early 1980s and a lack of political commitment. The Fifth National Development Plan, which was supposed to take off by 1986, ushered us into the Structural Adjustment Programme. By then, Nigeria had abandoned five-year medium-term planning for ‘rolling plans,’ which in practical terms later translated to a lack of commitment to periodic national planning. Vision 2010 of General Sanni Abacha was cynically interpreted as a plan to perpetuate him in power. The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) (2003–2007) of President Olusegun Obasanjo was a comprehensive blueprint to fight poverty and release the enormous potential of the Nigerian economy, based on an aggressive market-based economic reform programme. This was followed by Vision 20:2020 of President Goodluck Jonathan, targeted at making Nigeria one of the 20 largest economies in the world by 2020, in line with Goldman Sachs’ prediction; it continued the path of aggressive market-based reforms. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP 2017-2020) and the National Development Plan (NDP) 2021-2025 were brilliant economic development blueprints produced under President Muhammadu Buhari but achieved very little due to the absence of strong political commitment to economic reforms. This has been a brief review of Nigeria’s planning history, which, in an attempt at brevity, has glossed over many important details, but suffice it to say that our economic planning has been inconsistent and marked by a lack of political commitment and long-term vision.

This is unlike the remarkable commitment to long-term planning by Asian countries like Indonesia, India, and China. Indonesia, after many years of economic crises, began 5-year medium-term planning in 1969 and has since managed its economy remarkably well. Its gross domestic product, GDP, was $891bn in 2014, compared to Nigeria’s $574bn, according to World Bank data. By 2024, Indonesia’s GDP has risen by 61 percent to $1,475bn, while Nigeria’s GDP has declined by 56 percent to $252.7bn, according to IMF data. China has had 14 consistent 5-year development plans beginning with the 1953-1957 plan and has so much transformed its economy from $306 billion in 1980 to $18,533 billion in 2014, an increase of 6,000 percent, making her the second largest economy in the world. China’s GDP was only five times larger than Nigeria’s in 1980. Now it is 73 times larger! Similarly, India has had twelve 5-year development plans, beginning with the 1951-1956 plan. India’s GDP growth rate in 2023 was 7.83 percent, one of the fastest in the world, and its GDP estimate in 2024 is $3,937bn, and it will become the 3rd largest economy in the world in a few short years from now.

The foregoing shows the result of consistent medium- to long-term national economic planning. This shows the way for Nigeria.

Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos.