The level of anxiety, appeals, remonstrations, and high-level consultations by the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration concerning the proposed August 1 protest, and even implied and bare-faced threats by some security organs, are in themselves a study in the dynamics of democracy in Nigeria, as imperfect as it may be. But the planned protest is ill-timed. If the goal is to protest against current economic hardship, which admittedly is biting for a large segment of our population, it ought to have been done months ago when prices began to rise at unprecedented rates, month-on-month, and when ameliorative responses were slow in coming. But so much has since changed, and we are just at the cusp of a turnaround in the economy. I speak as an economist. I hold brief for no one. The Nigerian economy is simply my constituency.
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Genuine cost of living protests are usually spontaneous and not planned for weeks by faceless organisers. The Egyptian ‘Bread Intifada’ or ‘Bread riots’ of 1977 is a case in point. It was an unorganised and spontaneous uprising against the increase in commodity prices January 18 and 19, 1977, after the Egyptian government cut subsidies for basic foodstuffs. I am by no means advocating for a food riot, but just to make the point that when the planning of a cost of living protest lingers for so long, it takes on political coloration.
President Tinubu should be commended for mustering the political will, which his predecessor lacked, to introduce absolutely necessary economic reforms when he came to power. His political rivals would have soon after assuming office done exactly the same thing—for the simple reason that Nigeria was in a very serious financial crisis and was on the brink of an economic collapse of cataclysmic proportions. It is evident that was not very obvious when we were literally burning away all our scarce petrodollar crude oil revenue through a ballooning fuel subsidy regime with the government going on a borrowing spree, chalking up N27 trillion of ways and means borrowing from the Central Bank of Nigeria—a code name for printing naira notes to spend largely on salaries and consumables, along with billions of dollars of foreign debt.
“If the goal is to protest against current economic hardship, which admittedly is biting for a large segment of our population, it ought to have been done months ago when prices began to rise at unprecedented rates, month-on-month, and when ameliorative responses were slow in coming.”
This might sound unpopular, but the Tinubu Administration has done a good job in rescuing the economy from collapse for the following reasons:
The inflation rate in June 2024 of 34.19 percent only recorded a mere 0.24 percent month-on-month increase and a similar 0.26 percent month-on-month increase in the May inflation rate of 33.95 percent. From July, the inflation rate would have possibly plateaued and begun to decline month-by-month, if not for the coincidence of the payment of the new minimum wage.
Many measures have been taken so far by the government to ameliorate the economic hardship, including the new minimum wage of N70,000; the establishment of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) to give loans to students in tertiary schools; a five-month duty-free import window for maize, rice, wheat, and others; the distribution of 740 trailer loads of rice across Nigeria—20 trucks to each state for the most vulnerable; and the and the free conversion of the engines of public transport vehicles to CNG fuel.
Improved macroeconomic management: The Federal Government has exited ways and means, meaning government no longer prints money to pay salaries; CBN has liquidated the $812.2 million trapped funds owed to foreign airlines and is working assiduously to clear a total of $7 billion of backlog of debts owed to foreign business partners; considerable improvement in revenue collection – Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursement for June 2024 was N2.32 trillion compared to total FAAC allocation of N890.71 billion in June 2023, which is a 160 percent increase; Federal Government’s revenue to debt service ratio dropped from 97 percent in 2023 to 68 percent in 2024, according to Mr. Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and coordinating Minister of the Economy; government plans to reduce budget deficit from 6.1 percent in 2023 to 4.0 percent in 2024; and the stabilisation of the naira exchange rate, which has moderated the rate of increase of inflation.
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The local refining of diesel by the Dangote Refinery has already reduced the price of diesel from N1,700 to N1,100 per litre, and with the beginning of local production of premium motor spirit or petrol by local refineries in August and the export of excess production, the Nigerian foreign exchange market is set to witness significant liquidity, which will impact positively on both the naira exchange rate as well as the inflation rate. The onset of the harvest season and duty-free food imports are expected to impact positively on food prices and headline inflation.
The foregoing arguments are enough to take the wind out of the sail of the protagonists of the proposed August 1 protest, who, from all indications, are primarily politically motivated. But it is abundantly clear that workers, students, and other critical stakeholders, including most of the Southern and Middle Belt states, may not be actively participating in the protest.
Be that as it may, the democratic rights of the protesters must be upheld for as long as it is a peaceful protest, no matter their agenda. But they must observe the four tests of Martin Luther King for mass action or protest: 1. they must demonstrate they have a grievance and are not using the protest to cause confusion and for the purpose of revenge; 2. they must have exhausted all methods of engaging the government for peaceful resolution of their grievances; 3. having found all those methods and doors to be closed, they must ensure they do not cause injustice to others; and 4. they must demonstrate they have a clear programme of salvaging the society without causing injustice to others.
Mr. Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos
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