Trudeau’s grand promises go missing in Canada election

The day after Canada’s federal election campaign officially got under way, the party leaders faced off for their first televised debate, with one conspicuous exception — prime minister Justin Trudeau was a no-show.

While the leaders of three national parties sparred over topics such as the economy, indigenous issues and the environment, a podium put out for Mr Trudeau stood empty. Prior to the debate, Green party leader Elizabeth May pretended to shake hands with an invisible Mr Trudeau.

“I think we can all agree that Justin Trudeau is afraid of his record and that’s why he’s not here tonight,” said Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, who is trailing Mr Trudeau narrowly in the polls.

Mr Trudeau’s decision to stay away from Thursday night’s debate was widely seen as reflective of a government struggling to reconcile the grand promises he made in 2015 about change and transparency in government with the reality of the past four years.

“The ‘ sunny ways’ approach he campaigned on backfired because it set high hopes that were not entirely met,” said Stéphanie Chouinard, an assistant professor of political studies at Queen’s University.

Mr Trudeau’s office had already said he would not attend the debate. He has agreed to participate in only one English-language debate next month, which was set up by a debate commission his government created, while he is set to take part in two Frenchlanguage debates.

But on the broader issue of Mr Trudeau’s tarnished image, pollster Shachi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute noted: “Trudeau has broken his own brand.”

His Liberal party have several achievements they can point to in their bid for re-election. Under Mr Trudeau cannabis use was legalised, fulfilling a key pledge that drew the support of many young voters in 2015. His government implemented a national carbon tax to fight climate change. Meanwhile, a relatively strong economy and increased government benefits helped reduce child poverty to the lowest level on record.

Yet key promises from 2015 were broken or fell short. Mr Trudeau abandoned his pledge to reform Canada’s electoral system to do away with the first-past-thepost system. He angered environmentalists by supporting the Trans Mountain pipeline.

And while some steps were taken to improve the lives of indigenous people, they fell short of establishing the “nation-to-nation” relationship with First Nations that Mr Trudeau promised.

“The last four years has seen some significant moves but mostly ornamental change,” said Niigaan James Sinclair, of the department of native studies at Manitoba university.

Mr Trudeau also continues to be dogged by the Snc-lavalin controversy. Earlier this year revelations that he and other officials tried to pressure former attorneygeneral Jody Wilson-raybould to help the Quebec-based engineering company avoid criminal corruption charges resulted in his poll numbers tanking. Mr Trudeau later ejected her from the Liberal caucus.

The Liberals have climbed back to take a shaky lead in the polls over the Conservatives.

But then, just hours before Mr Trudeau triggered the election, Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported that officers from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police had interviewed Ms WilsonRaybould about political interference in the Snc-lavalin case on Tuesday.

“SNC has been a big stain on the Trudeau record,” said Ms Chouinard, though she believes the Liberals have already lost all the votes they are going to over the controversy.

The danger for Mr Trudeau is that young voters who supported him in 2015 could feel discouraged and stay home on election day on October 21, while Mr Scheer’s voter base is older and more committed.

“The left of centre in Canada is a mile wide and an inch deep,” said Ms Kurl. “The question is always will they turn out to vote and will they vote as a group or be split.”

With both the left-leaning New Democratic party, led by Jagmeet Singh, and Ms May’s Green’s positioning themselves as the change vote for 2019, the Liberals have turned to scare tactics to keep Mr Trudeau’s supporters from straying.

The Liberals have targeted Mr Scheer on social issues in recent weeks, resurfacing a 2005 video in which he explained his opposition to same-sex marriage. Mr Trudeau has also hammered Mr Scheer over the issue of abortion, suggesting the Conservatives will let backbench MPS introduce antiabortion legislation, something Mr Scheer has promised he would not allow.

If left-of-centre voters believe Mr Scheer could win, the Liberal thinking goes, they will stick with Mr Trudeau to stop that from happening.

It has all left Canadian voters a grumpy lot, disliking either of their options between the Liberals and Conservatives. An Angus Reid poll released this month found 63 per cent of Canadians hold an unfavourable view of Mr Trudeau, while 52 per cent share the same view of Mr Scheer.