When Nigerians go to the polls in February, they will face a choice between two septuagenarian men they know well. Both are northern Muslims who have run for president multiple times, served at the highest levels of government and found success in their chosen fields. Besides that, President Muhammadu Buhari and former vice-president Atiku Abubakar— commonly known as Atiku — could not be more different.
Mr Buhari, a former general who ruled the country in a military government briefly in the 1980s, is reserved and formal. Mr Abubakar, who served as vice-president from 1999 to 2007 to then president Olusegun Obasanjo, is an outspoken former customs officer who has become fabulously wealthy across a range of sectors, including oil.
“Atiku is the politician’s politician,” says Cheta Nwanze, head of research at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based political consultancy. “He has built networks around the country . . . He also is a more friendly person than Buhari, who is more austere and rigid in his approach.” Mr Nwanze sees Mr Buhari as “taciturn and given to trusting only a few, close people, and less amenable to compromise”, but adds: “Unlike Atiku, he is not motivated by wealth.”
Mr Abubakar has already focused on Mr Buhari’s mixed economic record, along with the volatile national security situation that the former general campaigned on solving in 2015. The Buhari team is focusing on allegations of crony capitalism that have long dogged Mr Abubakar and which he denies.
A number of third-party candidates are also running — including former deputy central bank governor Kingsley Moghalu and activist Oby Ezekwesili — though few observers give them any a shot of winning in a system dominated by the two major parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress and the major opposition People’s Democratic Party.
In 2015, Mr Buhari had the support of Mr Abubakar, a perennial party switcher. But last year, Mr Abubakar became one of many high-profile politicians to defect from Mr Buhari’s APC in order to challenge him and easily won a crowded PDP primary last month.
Mr Buhari’s campaign has highlighted his reputation for keeping his hands clean, a notable exception in a country often referred to as a kleptocracy. The president has been credited with cutting down on graft, though some of his close allies have been accused of corruption.
The president has also tried to emphasise his military service and came to power promising to “decimate” Boko Haram, the jihadi group that at the time of his election controlled territory across north-east Nigeria. But while the militant group is significantly diminished, it continues to terrorise the north-east — just one of the country’s security crises.
Mr Abubakar has said he will privatise parts of the moribund state-run oil company, which has long been a cash cow for the government and corrupt politicians. But in early November he also said he would lower the government-subsidised price of petrol, a popular promise many economists say would exacerbate Nigeria’s already precarious fiscal situation.
The economy’s sluggish performance after the oil price crash may hurt Mr Buhari’s prospects, says Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East for Standard Chartered. “In Nigeria, people are not going to see the context of [how] oil producers have been suffering all over, all they see is Nigeria has been hit by something. It coincided with the time Buhari came into power and the economic performance has been disappointing,” she says.
Gross domestic product growth is forecast at close to 2 per cent this year, outpaced by population growth in the world’s fastest-growing big country. Unemployment has soared to 19 per cent from about 8 per cent when Mr Buhari took office. The administration has defended its record, in particular the infrastructure investment it has made and a recent drop in inflation.
As vice-president, Mr Abubakar supervised the privatisation of many state assets, which opened him to accusations of crony capitalism, says Mr Nwanze. He contrasts this with Mr Buhari’s “big government” ethos, and his tougher approach to regulation.
The electoral system of Nigerian politics is complicated. The winner must win at least a quarter of the votes in 24 of the country’s 36 states, in addition to the popular vote, to triumph in the first round. Otherwise, there is a second-round run-off requiring a majority.
The main parties tend to be fluid because they are largely based on patronage rather than ideology. An informal system rotates presidential candidates between the predominantly Muslim north and Christian south.
Mr Buhari’s coalition with Bola Tinubu, ex-governor of Lagos state and one of the country’s most powerful political patrons, helped him secure victory in 2015 by sewing up the south-west region. But cracks have appeared in Mr Tinubu’s armour, with the APC barely squeaking out victories in recent state elections in the area.
Mr Abubakar has promised to serve for just one term, though even supporters are not quite sure whether he will stick to the pledge.
“Most of them come in claiming to do one term and, you know, power is intoxicating,” says Orji Uka, a Nigerian political analyst.
