The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has stated that the country’s crude oil production stands at approximately 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd), significantly lower than the 1.8 million bpd figure recently claimed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).
The announcement, which came amid efforts to stabilise Nigeria’s oil output and address industry challenges, highlights discrepancies in production reporting between the regulator and the state-owned oil company.
According to NUPRC’s figures, the 1.53 million bpd estimate includes crude oil and condensates, lighter hydrocarbons extracted alongside crude oil.
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The NUPRC report highlights an increase in blended condensates to 44,134 bpd, while unblended condensates declined to 160,672 bpd during the same period.
In total, Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, stood at 1,538,129 bpd in October 2024, lowest in the last three months.
In January, oil and condensate production was 1.64 million bpd; it was 1.539 million bpd in February; 1.43 million bpd in March; 1.44 million bpd in April, and 1.46 million bpd in May.
In June, it was 1.50 million bpd; 1.533 million bpd in July; 1.57 million bpd in August; 1.54 million bpd in September, and 1.538 million bpd in October.
Statutorily, it is the function of the NUPRC as the upstream regulator to: “Maintain records on upstream petroleum operations, particularly on matters relating to petroleum reserves, production/exports, licenses, and leases.”
NUPRC data showed that oil and condensate production slowed in Forcados from 7.29 million barrels in September down to 5 million barrels in October, while it rose marginally from 6.1 million barrels to 6.2 million in Bonny terminal.
Also, for the month, Nigeria produced 1.33 million bpd of its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota out of the 1.58 million bpd allocated to it by the international oil cartel.
The NUPRC’s latest output figures of 1.53 million bpd is still below Nigeria’s production quota of 1.58 million bpd set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for November 2024.
NUPRC’s stance contrasts with NNPC’s claim, which had reported a rebound in oil production to 1.8 million bpd as most available data do not indicate any significant upward trend in crude production so far.
The disagreement over production figures comes at a time when Nigeria is striving to bolster revenue from oil exports, which remain a critical source of foreign exchange. Lower-than-expected production could have implications for the country’s fiscal planning and economic stability.
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NNPC’s claim
Nigeria’s state oil firm NNPC said on November 14 it had increased oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), with the possibility of getting to two million bpd by year-end.
The NNPC said the increase was a result of collaborative efforts with its joint venture operators and its partners on production-sharing contracts, alongside security agencies and the government.
“The team has done a great job in driving this project of not just production recovery but also escalating production to expected levels that are in the short and long terms acceptable to our shareholders,” NNPC CEO Mele Kyari told a press briefing.
Kyari said the interventions across every segment of the production chain, supported by rigorous pipeline monitoring from security agencies, had been critical to the recovery.
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