As opposition to fossil fuel mounts in Western countries, African experts are standing up against efforts by Western countries to curb crude oil production as a way to protect the environment.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based think tank that advises Western countries on their energy policies, on May 18 released a roadmap outlining plans for the global energy sector to reach “net-zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Achieving net-zero emissions means the amount of greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere would equal the amount being removed.
To achieve this balance, the IEA insists that it would require more than aggressive carbon-capture measures: It would call for a swift and immediate shift from petroleum energy sources to energy provided through naturally replenished sources like wind, water, and solar power.
The implication of this is adverse for Africa, where 592 million people have no access to electricity, where nearly half of the countries produce fossil fuels and depend on them to fund their budgets, and where the world’s poorest people call home.
Nj Ayuk, executive chairman, African Energy Chamber, an energy think tank that serves as the voice of the African energy sector, said that while it is a great concept from an environmental standpoint, in real-world Africa, this goal is neither feasible nor advisable.
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“Demonizing energy companies is not a constructive way forward, and ignoring the role that carbon-based fuels have played in driving human progress distorts the public debate,” Ayuk said.
“We cannot expect African nations, which together emitted seven times less CO2 than China last year and four times less than the US, according to the Global Carbon Atlas, to undermine their best opportunities for economic development by simply aligning with the Western view of how to tackle carbon emissions.”
In the IEA roadmap, the organisation called for no new investment in new fossil fuel supply (including oil and gas) after 2021, no new sales of fossil fuel boilers after 2025, no new internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales after 2035 globally, 60 percent of car sales to be electric by 2030, and 50 percent of heavy truck sales to be electric from 2035.
However, this analysis is flawed because it assumes that everyone would have access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030, would be rich enough to afford Tesla cars, and governments around the world would suddenly find an alternative income source apart from fossil fuels.
But African objection may not halt this impending energy transition. For big oil companies who make investment decisions, argued Uchenna Obi, a UK-based transition energy expert, “It is now both ethical and moral requirement to align their operational interests with the global decarbonisation agenda.”
Shortly after the IEA released the Net-Zero report, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) responded by saying that for many developing countries, the pathway to net-zero without international assistance is not clear.
“Technical and financial support is needed to ensure deployment of key technologies and infrastructure. Without greater international co‐operation, global CO2 emissions will not fall to net-zero by 2050,” OPEC said in its report.
Countries like Australia also opposed the plan and energy analysts across the African continent are railing against it.
“Oil and gas (and gas in particular) will still be with us for a long time. At least in Africa, some of Asia (especially China) and Latin America, fossil fuels will still thrive,” said Ayodele Oni, energy lawyer and partner at Bloomfield law firm.
Oni said this is because there is the rising realisation that the Western world used heavy fossil fuels to achieve industrialization and are now trying to make everyone else similarly pursuing industrialisation to abandon oil and gas.
“A just transition has to take into account that Africa is underexplored for resources and holds around 7 percent of the world’s proven crude oil and natural gas reserves, yet the continent remains significantly under-explored,” said Buhle Donga, an energy analyst at South Africa-based DMWA Resources, in a LinkedIn post.
Outside Africa, some experts are also kicking against the move. Nick Maden, a former senior vice president, and upstream executive director at Equinor, said that 60 percent of the world lives in energy poverty with the resulting low life expectancy.
“For these countries, it’s not about which Tesla they should buy but how do you bring economic prosperity to all, and that is done by achieving energy access to all, the UN sustainable goal No. 7,” said Maden.
The consequence of committing to the IEA’s net-zero strategy is that it could cede investment space into Africa’s oil and gas projects to China which has a poor environmental protection record.
China would not only enjoy a monopoly but call the shots in Africa. Recently, Nigeria revoked the oil licence of Addax, a company majority-owned by China, and reversed the decision in hours under the weight of Chinese pressure.
The IEA’s proposal could also impede gas development which is projected to grow global gas demand forecast to rise by 1.5 percent on average per year out to 2025. Gas is supposed to be a bridge fuel into renewable energy.
Gas also plays a critical role in Africa. It is responsible for large-scale job creation, increased opportunities for monetization and economic diversification, and critical gas-to-power initiatives that will bring more reliable electricity.
“These significant benefits should not be dismissed in the name of achieving net-zero emissions on deadline,” Ayuk said.
“To tell African countries with gas potentials like Mozambique, Tanzania, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Senegal, Libya, Algeria, South Africa, Angola, and many others that they can’t monetize their gas and rather wait for foreign aid and handouts from their western counterparts makes no sense,” he said.
The IEA said the world would need $5 trillion investments by 2025 to achieve net-zero. African governments lack the resources, Western countries are not investing in the space in Africa and big oil companies are not massively investing in renewables on the continent despite their shareholders’ outrage over carbon emission.
“Africa deserves the chance to capitalize on its own oil and gas to strengthen itself, rather than being bullied onto a path determined by Western institutions that don’t face the same obstacles,” said Ayuk.
