The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said that Brent crude oil prices will average $107 per barrel in the second quarter of this year.
The agency, in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday, said that the Brent crude prices averaged $105 per barrel in April.
The EIA began its projections with, “The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
According to the report, the EIA expects prices to fall to $103 per barrel in the second half of the year before falling to an average of $97 per barrel next year—more than double the average price for 2020.
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However, the EIA cautioned that these projections were made on May 5, prior to any European Union (EU) ban on Russian oil imports, which the organisation believed would raise prices even further.
In addition, it predicts that the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will average $98.20 in 2022, before falling to $9.24 the following year.
It said: “Crude oil production in the United States will average 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022, up only 700,000 from the previous year’s average.
“The EIA expects the increase to be much larger next year, averaging 12.8 million bpd in 2023, setting a new record.”
The Agency also forecasted global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels in April 2022 at 97.4 million barrels per day, up 2.1 million bpd from last April. The full-year 2022 consumption is expected to average 99.6 million bpd, down 200,000 bpd from the April STEO.
Meanwhile, it anticipates that gasoline prices in the United States will average $3.82 this year and $3.51 next year, up from $3.02 per gallon in 2021 and $2.18 per gallon in 2020.
