Brent curve turns bearish on supply as Hormuz risks mount

The global oil market has flashed fresh warning signs over crude availability after the Brent futures curve swung sharply into backwardation, signalling growing concerns over immediate supply shortages as tensions escalate in the Middle East and disruptions persist around the Strait of Hormuz.

Backwardation is a market condition where the current price (spot price) of an asset is higher than the prices trading in the futures market, according to Investopedia. This usually happens when there is an immediate, high demand for the physical asset or a temporary supply shortage.

The shift marks a significant reversal from the calmer market conditions that prevailed only weeks ago, following a memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran aimed at restarting negotiations and reopening shipping lanes through the strategic waterway.

However, renewed hostilities, attacks on commercial shipping and Washington’s decision to reinstate restrictions on Iranian crude exports have pushed traders back into pricing a geopolitical risk premium into oil markets.

Early on Wednesday, the September Brent contract traded at $85.79 per barrel, approximately $8.30 per barrel higher than the contract for delivery six months later, which changed hands at $77.49 per barrel.

The premium widened further to $8.92 per barrel between the first-month and sixth-month contracts, according to Reuters data, representing the widest spread since June 10, days before Washington and Tehran agreed to begin talks.

The return of backwardation, where prompt contracts trade above future deliveries, typically reflects expectations of tight near-term supply and stronger demand for immediate crude availability.

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By contrast, contango, where future contracts trade above spot prices, generally signals comfortable supply conditions and adequate inventories.

The latest move suggests traders are becoming increasingly concerned about the availability of prompt barrels from the Middle East as tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below pre-conflict levels.

The Strait handles nearly 20 percent of global oil consumption and a substantial share of liquefied natural gas exports, making any disruption to shipping flows immediately relevant to global energy markets.

The reversal is particularly striking because only a month ago, oil markets were signalling the opposite.

Following the announcement of negotiations between Washington and Tehran and the temporary reopening of the Strait, benchmark crudes including Brent, Dubai, Murban and Oman all retreated as fears over immediate supply shortages eased.

At the time, futures curves for major Middle Eastern crude grades moved into contango for the first time since the conflict began in late February, indicating market confidence that oil supplies would remain readily available.

That optimism has since evaporated. The return of hostilities over the weekend, Iranian attacks on vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz and renewed US military operations have once again raised questions over the security of oil shipments leaving the Gulf.

The reimposition of restrictions on Iranian oil exports has added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market.

Analysts said the return of backwardation reflects more than geopolitical anxiety. They said it is also a signal that refiners and traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate access to crude rather than risk future supply disruptions.

The structure also creates incentives for producers and traders to release oil from storage because current prices are higher than those available for future deliveries.

For oil-exporting economies such as Nigeria, the return of stronger prompt prices could improve export earnings, government revenues and foreign exchange inflows if elevated prices persist.

However, a prolonged disruption to shipping through Hormuz would likely increase freight costs, tighten global energy supplies and add to inflationary pressures across importing economies.

The behaviour of the Brent curve over the coming weeks is expected to become one of the clearest indicators of market sentiment regarding the conflict.

A narrowing premium could signal improving confidence in supply security and shipping flows, while a widening spread would suggest that traders expect disruptions in the Gulf to persist and immediate crude supplies to tighten further.