The persistent surge in the number of COVID-19 patients in Nigeria should prompt a proactive response to redesigning lockdown easing strategies aimed at protecting lives and livelihoods. While it is almost impossible to permanently halt economic activities given the peculiarities in Nigeria, we must seek to reinvent ways to also curb and ultimately stop the spread of the deadly virus.
As at midnight, the 25th of May, 229 new COVID-19 patients were reported in fifteen states, raising the total in Nigeria to 8,068. Although confirmed fatalities account for a meagre 3 percent and discharged cases roughly 29 percent of total cases, each new infection increases the risk of losing another precious life.
That COVID-19 poses a grave threat to Nigerians is evident in the data above. However, despite the accelerating numbers and the healthcare challenge it poses, the federal government thought it wise to ease restrictions with caution as economic pain becomes more acute for households and firms. The question it must answer is, how can we effectively curb the spread of the virus while trying to fix our economy?
In a report, “Reopening and re imagining Africa: How the COVID-19 crisis can catalyse change”, consultants at McKinsey & Company suggest a “three-step process to reopen economies in a way that safeguards lives and livelihoods”.
According to the report, the process starts with defining a tiered set of local response measures, from the least restrictive to the most restrictive. Each tier would include measures to protect both the general population and high-risk populations (the elderly and people who have weak immune system), and would also specify which sectors can open and operate.
In the Nigerian scenario, a close look at the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control’s (NCDCs) situation report reveals those between 20 and 60 years account for the largest ratio of total cases; not the elderly who probably have no business going out. Those who are more likely to get infected is expected given they form the bulk of working age population. They have to make ends meet and ensure their daily survival, hence, highly exposed to contracting the deadly virus.
The wearing of face masks has been mandated, a limit placed on the number of passengers in public transport, measures put in place to decongest market places by creating rosters for sellers of essential and non-essential goods in a bid to curb the spread of the virus; the enforcement of these measures remain a challenge.
Market places are still congested with little respect for social distancing measures, some public transporters still overload their buses as all it takes to go scot-free is a bribe to police officials at checkpoints, most partially obey the face mask order and of course walk freely despite the fine introduced, policemen extort drivers who flout the 8pm curfew leaving pedestrians to walk freely.
Also according to McKinsey, regions can be triaged by both outbreak severity and health system readiness. To achieve this, the NCDC must increase testing capabilities across regions in states. Accurate data on the severity of outbreaks could inform unique strategies on curbing the virus outbreak in these regions. This will also better inform the federal and state governments on the status of healthcare systems in these regions.
Finally, continuous monitoring of progress and adherence is required.
It is important to note that applying these steps is not a one-time process to move beyond the pandemic. Ongoing capabilities are required to manage both the public health response and the economy through a prolonged recovery.
Considering the bleak economic outlook of Nigeria and concerns about rate of spread of the COVID-19 virus, Nigeria must adopt smart approaches while reopening its economy in a calibrated way that brings key industries back into operation while ensuring safe ways of working.
