As the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic takes its course in Nigeria, infection rate is seemingly playing catch-up with the levels seen same period last year.
Nigeria was in the middle of a swelling uptick in infection rate between July 9 and August 4, 2020, while the fatality moved between 2.1 percent to 2.3 percent of cumulative cases.
Daily cases averaged 544 and hit a high of 664 even though variants of concern had not crept into the picture. The original COVID-19 virus was the main driver of that surge.
The difference now, however, is that the highly contagious Delta variant seems to be staging a replay that could overtake the year-on-year record from 2020.
Although average daily cases has hovered around 270 since Nigeria detected Delta, the country has seen cases hit 590 in a day and sustained at over 500 at some point. Death cases are also growing steadily as Lagos for instance records six per day.
If the trajectory of current infections follows the first wave of 2020, Nigeria could see a sustained rise for more than a month before things begin to moderate.
The pattern of waves equally appears the COVID-19 could be seasonal as some virologists and epidemiologists have suggested.
Some researchers in Netherlands have hypothesised that COVID-19 satisfies the seasonal criteria of earlier flu-like pandemics, using comparative time-series analysis and a standardised logarithm infection scale as determinants.
They suggest that the seasonal factors driving flu season are also responsible for COVID-19 seasonality.
“We conclude that seasonal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and influenza-like illnesses incidence are highly similar, in a country in the temperate climate zone, such as the Netherlands. Further, the COVID-19 pandemic satisfies the criteria of earlier respiratory pandemics, namely a first wave that is short-lived at the tail-end of flu season, and a second wave that is longer and more severe,” Martijn Hoogeveen and Eellen Hoogeveen stated in their research published in ScienceDirect, a science journal.