The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa has shown in its portal that not less than 20 African countries will have elections in 2023. Gabon, Liberia, DR Congo, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Zimbabwe and Nigeria are some of the countries that will have elections at various times during the year.
Nigeria’s democracy faces another crucial test. As you read this article, the presidential election in Nigeria is only four days away. Presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections are scheduled for 25 February and 11 March 2023 respectively.
In the past eight months, or thereabout, several polls have put one presidential candidate, Peter Gregory Obi, of the Labour Party ahead of the two major presidential flag bearers and their political parties. But many public intellectuals and political pundits have questioned whether the results of such polls irrespective of the methodologies and platforms used in conducting the exercise, can ever truly reflect the will of ordinary Nigerians. Some of the polls have predicted a runoff of the presidential election which has never happened since 1999 when Nigeria became a democratic nation.
“Nigerians should expect a runoff to decide its next president, according to SBM Intelligence, a geopolitical research consultancy firm. This was in its latest report on a poll commissioned by Enough is Enough Nigeria to forecast the outcome of next Saturday’s presidential election.” According to SBM, “Nigerians will need a second round to decide their next president definitively.” On the 25 February 2023, we will get the true poll results and indeed, the one that matters.
There are emerging threats to democracy such as rising insecurity, corruption, lack of economic mobility and new digital surveillance technologies which the country must focus on before the forthcoming elections
But it’s not just voter polls; governments both at national and sub-national levels are not paying closer attention to the feelings of the people. While most advocates of democracy in our country have focused narrowly in my view, on defending rights and freedoms of the citizen, but neglecting the pain and dangers of economic hardship and inequality.
There are emerging threats to democracy such as rising insecurity, corruption, lack of economic mobility and new digital surveillance technologies which the country must focus on before the forthcoming elections. Only then can those in authority say that democracy has improved the electoral process in Africa’s largest economy of over two hundred million people.
Meanwhile, anti – democratic forces have been able to exploit economic and social grievances to gain a political foothold within the country. These undemocratic forces have been able to spread confusion. They are not interested in eliminating the confusion because their strength is derived from chaos.
And unfortunately, most uninformed Nigerians have all done their bit to execute an engineered crisis out of nothing. The originators of, and responders to the crisis can trade blames, but it is here with us, according to a policy analyst.
About two weeks ago, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Mahmood Yakubu, told the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, that the new Naira notes’ scarcity might disrupt the 2023 elections. The INEC boss requested the CBN to address the concerns of the people related to cash withdrawal policy because many of INEC’s service providers have no bank accounts. The CBN Governor promised that the cash would be made available for the payment of the service providers.
Prof Mahmood Yakubu had a meeting with the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) during which he promised to meet with officials of the NNPC Limited to discuss mitigating measures against lingering petrol scarcity. The lingering petrol scarcity may affect the transportation of election materials and pose great danger to the conduct of elections.
Despite assurances from the CBN Governor that cash would be made available for the payment of the service providers, report making rounds in a few tv stations on Wednesday February 15, 2023, was not impressive because INEC warned that the Naira crisis could threaten Polls.
The implementation of the Naira redesign policy has not done much to inspire the confidence of the people. Peoples’ money has been seized. Most Nigerians are traumatized. In the last four weeks, most Nigerians have been struggling to access cash.
Once the crisis on Naira notes swap and the lingering fuel scarcity cannot be resolved at the time of reading this article, can we blame those Nigerians who have expressed their concerns that the 2023 elections will not hold as scheduled? These fears are not unfounded as the elections will be conducted at a time the country is going through debilitating currency crunch, high unemployment, a growing insecurity footprint.
This year’s election will differ from those of previous years since 1999. Notably, it will involve the country’s largest ever most youthful electorate and new technologies. Moreover, the presidential election will largely be a three-way contest in which we may likely have a run-off. A run-off would be Nigeria’s first. Anyway, a peaceful election is critical for the eventual winner’s ability to govern. It would also enhance Nigeria’s credibility in supporting democracy particularly in Africa.
Yet, the polity is gradually becoming unstable as a result of tensions arising from lack of cash in the hands of people who have submitted their old Naira notes to the banks without getting new Naira notes in return. Truth be told, there is Naira scarcity.
The Naira scarcity has increased the level of insecurity to some Nigerians. And it is expected that the insecurity could escalate further. This calls for urgent actions on the part of Federal and state governments, security agencies, INEC, political parties and international partners to work together in order to mitigate violence by sanctioning perpetrators, ensuring election security, defusing inter – party tensions and ensuring the polls are credible.
In this year’s election, more than 90 million Nigerians out of a population estimated to be over 200 million are eligible to vote. The number of eligible voters this year is more than the 84 million who were eligible to cast their votes in 2019. The INEC is rolling out technologies particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS).
According to BusinessDay Antonia Ochei’s article titled A Loop Hole in BVAS? “Among other innovations, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) is expected to improve the transparency of election results and increase public confidence in electoral outcomes in recent elections.” Will the technological innovations to be used in the 2023 elections be the game changer? The outcome of results during the elections on February 25, and March 11, 2023 will provide the answers to the question.
However, the “INEC claims that the technological advancements in the new law will address the ten most common problems in Nigeria’s election result management process. These include falsification of votes at polling units, falsification of the number of accredited voters, collation of false results, swapping of result sheets, forging of results sheets, snatching and destruction of result sheets, mutilation of false results and computational errors, obtaining declaration and return involuntarily premature declaration and return while collation is ongoing and, poor record-keeping. In summary, issues such as over-voting can easily be noticed and effectively tackled.”
At the time of writing this article, persistent security challenges across large swathes of the country persists. These include insurgents in the north east, bandits in the north west and north central zones, separatists in the south east and criminal gangs in the Niger Delta.
These security challenges are affecting election preparations and could disrupt the vote in many places, thus raising the risk of post – election protests that could degenerate into street clashes, according to public intellectuals and political analysts.
Read also: Nigeria’s presidential election is galvanizing young voters like never before
A second factor is the bitter in-fighting among members of the major political parties. The APC and PDP in particular are guilty of incitement and hate speech in their messaging and partisans of all the major presidential candidates – Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi- have spread the same on social media.
We have a situation where each front runner drawing support – strongly but not exclusively – from his ethnic, religious and regional bases with the campaigns gradually snowballing into communal tensions that could turn ugly and dirty.
Still other concerns drive up risks. Of importance is the failure to punish perpetrators of violence in the past elections which has sustained a climate of impunity that is visibly seen in 2023. Public intellectuals have expressed their views that “Our docility as Nigerians was responsible for the impunity among the political class. Nigerians reward corrupt leaders with re-election. We need to change this narrative as we prepare for the next elections starting in a couple of day from now.
It is strongly believed that the mitigating measures, if any, that INEC has in place would allay the fears of stakeholders and citizens that the elections will take place peacefully without any major hitches. The Federal Government has assured Nigerians that elections will take place as scheduled in a secure environment. We, therefore, appeal to all politicians aspiring for elective positions and their supporters to stop spreading inflammatory rhetoric and refocus their campaign efforts on substantive issues.
As Nigerians file out to elect a new president in a couple of days, it is necessary to remind the electorate that a country’s future and destiny are shaped by the choice of the personality they elect. Entrusting a country’s leadership and resources to a politician or group of politicians with impaired vision and dubious national disposition will certainly be a tragedy. Thank you.
