• Friday, April 26, 2024
businessday logo

BusinessDay

Do it all: No “silver bullet” for coronavirus

coronavirus

I cannot lay claim to the title of this article, as it was crafted from the brief of the Director General (DG) of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, on August 3, 2020.  I watched the DG WHO on Aljazeera TV Station as he warned the world that there might never be a “silver bullet” for the novel coronavirus popularly referred to as COVID-19 despite the rush by countries to discover effective vaccines. Tedros declaration was least expected by many people.

The DG WHO advised governments and citizens globally that we should “do it all.” That is, doing all the already known basics namely, testing, contact tracing, isolation of infected persons, maintaining physical distance and wearing a mask to suppress the pandemic, which has turned upside down normal life around the globe, and triggered a devastating economic crisis.

“We all hope to have a number of effective vaccines that can help prevent people from infection,” the DG WHO stated at a virtual press conference. He further stated that for now, stopping outbreaks comes down to the basics of public health and disease control. “Do it all,” the DG WHO urged.

But COVID-19 has already inflicted huge damage on economies around the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) world economic output for June 2020 shows that: “The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activities in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecasted. In 2021, global growth is projected at 5.4 percent.”

Regardless of global economic situation, all countries including those that seemingly passed peaks in infections are advised to ensure that their healthcare systems are adequately resourced. The international community needs to vastly step up its support of national initiatives. This may include financial assistance to countries with limited healthcare capacity and channelling of funds for vaccine production as trials advance, so that adequate, affordable doses are quickly available to all countries.”

According to BusinessDay Editorial, 5 August, 2020, the Nigerian economy has seen five years of negative per capita growth, shed millions of jobs, and about half the population now live in abject poverty. On Nigeria’s economy, the IMF Mission Chief to Nigeria, says that the negative trend of per capita GDP growth could last another 5 years. By implication, “the average Nigerian will get even poorer and fewer people will be able to afford quality healthcare and education for themselves and their families.”

If Felter’s theory was anything to go by that a vaccine on average takes 8 to 15 years to get from the laboratory into the hands of healthcare providers, and that the fastest a vaccine was ever developed is 5 years, then all humans without exception need to do it all.

While education has been disrupted in 160 countries globally which is the largest in the history of humanity, over one billion students are out-of-school globally as a result of coronavirus, says the UN Sec Gen, Antonio Guterres. The UN Chief stated that 40 million children have missed out on education and thus, “the world faces generational catastrophe that could waste untold human potential, undermine decades of progress, and exacerbate entrenched inequalities.” Out-of-school children in Nigeria which already accounts for a fifth of the world figures could worsen due to the coronavirus pandemic, a report says.

At the time of writing this article, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the continent of Africa was 968,020, according to the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) on 4 August 2020. On the same day, the total number of cases in Nigeria was 44,129, according to the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).

Considering the number of infected cases, what is the world doing to create a COVID-19 vaccine? We could see governments and researchers worldwide aiming to provide billions of people with an effective vaccine to counter the new, deadly, and highly infectious coronavirus. Most medical experts and many governments have cautioned that daily life cannot return to normal until their citizens have developed antibodies to fend off the virus.

Some analysts have argued that a successful vaccine is necessary but lamented that many countries lack the capacity to produce quantities that would provide immunity to all their citizens. So, what have we observed in the international environment? We have observed competition emerging over who will have access once the vaccine is ready.

Some public affairs analysts have compared the global allocation of vaccines against the COVID-19 pandemic to oxygen masks dropping inside a depressurising aircraft. “You put on your own first, and then we want to help others as quickly as possible,” says a U.S Food and Drug Administration official. The major difference however, is that airplane oxygen masks do not drop only in the first or business class. Those in economy class equally have access to oxygen masks in the airplane. What will happen when vaccines eventually become available? Maybe only those nations in first class will first have access to the vaccine if governments exhibit delay in providing access to them by people in developing countries especially those in Africa.

One may want to know how vaccines are mostly produced. Vaccines are frequently products of collaborative efforts with private pharmaceutical firms teaming up with public health agencies and/or university labs. Public health agencies play critical roles in vaccine research, providing funds to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. There are international institutions such as the WHO, the World Bank, Gavi the vaccine alliance, and other multilateral institutions that are interested in financing and manufacturing COVID-19 vaccine for global use, in particular to ensure fair allocation among all countries.

Many nations are expecting the development of vaccines to be sped up. But many experts say the timeline of 12 to 18 months stated by U.S officials for COVID-19 vaccine is extremely optimistic. However, many experts have stressed that the pandemic may not end until there is an effective vaccine. Even if there is a vaccine today, and it is approved, there is the challenge of producing enough to cater to the needs of about 7 billion people worldwide.

Claire Felter in his article “What is the World Doing to Create a COVID-19 Vaccine?” published in the July 23, 2020 edition of the Council Foreign Relations states that “an estimated one billion doses would need to be manufactured just to vaccinate workers in healthcare and other essential industries globally, and that is if only a single dose is required for each person.”

If Felter’s theory was anything to go by that a vaccine on average takes 8 to 15 years to get from the laboratory into the hands of healthcare providers, and that the fastest a vaccine was ever developed is 5 years, then all humans without exception need to “do it all.” As the world looks for a cure of the coronavirus pandemic, I share same sentiments with those analysts who believe that nations must build a stock of essential supplies and protective equipment, funding research and supporting public health systems. And putting in place effective plans for delivering healthcare facilities to the indigent globally at an affordable cost. Thank you!