Ahead of the fifth anniversary of President Buhari’s administration on 29 May, the presidency published a document titled “Buhari administration fifth anniversary factsheet”, which sets out the administration’s achievements over the past five years. In a piece accompanying the document, Femi Adesina, President Buhari’s senior media adviser, averred that “Between May 29, 2015 … and now, the Buhari administration has made salutary impact in almost all facets of Nigerian life.”
Of course, this is all self-referential and self-congratulatory. Put simply, Buhari set his own exam paper and marked it himself, awarding himself an “A” grade. But if Nigerians were to second-mark the exam paper, they would probably award him a “C-minus” on the basis of these two exam questions: Has President Buhari fulfilled the promises he made to Nigerians during the 2015 presidential election? Are Nigerians and Nigeria better off today than they were five years ago?
These questions are important because a) fulfilling manifesto promises makes an electoral democracy credible and b) improving the lives of citizens is what politics and government should be about. As Aristotle put it, politics is “primarily concerned with the actualisation of human flourishing”. And Thomas Jefferson said: “The care of human life and happiness is the only legitimate object of good government”.
Now, take the election promises. Everyone knows that Buhari’s party, All Progressives Congress, APC, campaigned on a change agenda in 2015, and presented him as the saviour the nation needed, who, like Nelson Mandela, General Dwight Eisenhower or General Charles de Gaulle, would rescue the country from decline. But the APC did not only brag about Buhari’s leadership, vision and competence, they also set out detailed manifesto commitments in a document titled “An honest contract with Nigeria”.
As the presidency says, the focus of the administration has been on security, reviving the economy and fighting corruption over the past five years, well, the truth is that it has failed woefully. The economy remains comatose, corruption hasn’t gone away, and insecurity remains widespread
According to the Centre for Democracy and Development’s “Buharimeter”, Buhari made 222 campaign promises during the 2015 presidential election. But for this piece, let’s just highlight the following: Free primary and secondary education; turning federal-owned hospitals into “world-class standards with five years”; one million housing units per annum; at least 20,000 MW of electricity within four years; massive infrastructure projects; massive social security scheme; three million jobs a year; a “post-oil economy” and 10 percent annual GDP growth rate; zero-tolerance of corruption; ending insecurity; devolving powers, duties and responsibilities to states and local governments to entrench true federalism.
Now, five years on, can anyone say that Buhari has been the transformational leader? Has he turned out as the Nelson Mandela or the Dwight Eisenhower or the Charles de Gaulle of Nigeria? The answer must be “no”! And he has not fulfilled most of his campaign promises; certainly not the free education, not the world-class hospitals, not the one million housing units a year; not the 20,000 MW of electricity (only about 3,400 MW is generated); not the three million jobs a year; not the post-oil economy or even an economy that grows at 10% annually; and not the political restructuring. In other areas, such as infrastructure projects, social security scheme, anti-corruption and tackling insecurity, the impacts on people’s lives are miniscule, despite the huge resources put into them.
When I read the presidency’s 62-page long “fifth anniversary factsheet”, my gut reaction was: “Really? Just these in five years?” In his piece accompanying the “factsheet”, Adesina said “facts speak for themselves”, adding: “facts are stubborn things”. But what are the facts that show that the Buhari administration has irreversibly transformed Nigeria? Well, let’s analyse the “factsheet”.
As you would expect, the first on the presidency’s list of achievements is the massive investments in agriculture. These investments and other government interventions are said to have boosted local production of a number of food items, such as rice. But production is not the same thing as productivity. As Nonso Obikili rightly argued in his column last week, you can boost local production by banning imports and subsidising domestic producers, but that would prevent efficiency and productivity, which are linked to competitiveness.
Truth is, agricultural productivity is very low in Nigeria, with value-added per capita rising by less than 1 percent annually, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, FAO. Nigeria may have comparative advantage in agriculture, but it doesn’t have a competitive advantage. For instance, Nigeria is the world’s largest producer of cassava and shea nut, but it is not an exporter of these products. Why? Because their quality does not meet international standards. The FAO says that Nigeria loses $10 billion in annual export opportunity from groundnut, palm oil, cocoa and cotton alone because of the agricultural sector’s inefficiency and low productivity. So, pouring billions into the sector just to boost local production is a waste of scarce resources and no good government would count that as an achievement.
Interestingly, the Buhari administration also lists trade as its achievement, citing the establishment of the Nigerian Office for Trade Negotiations, NOTN. But which trade agreement has Nigeria negotiated – with Europe, the US, the UK, Japan or even China – to boost exports? The answer is none. Nigeria is more interested in banning or restricting imports than in promoting exports. The Renminbi-Naira swap agreement with China is aimed at making it easier for Nigeria to import from, not to export to, China. And although President Buhari reluctantly signed the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area, AfCFTA, his government has nothing to ratify and implement the agreement.
Of course, infrastructure projects feature prominently in the “factsheet”. The Buhari government has spent billions of naira on infrastructure projects, such as rail lines, roads, airport terminals, water projects, etc. But while President Buhari counts infrastructure investments as an achievement, he is saying nothing about the massive debt his government has accumulated over the past five years. He inherited an external debt of $10.32 billion in 2015, but by the end of 2019 he had ratcheted it up to $85 billion, about N27 trillion. Although a recent report said the federal government’s debt servicing costs ballooned to 92.2 percent of its revenue in Q1, the government still wants to borrow $3.3 billion. The section titled “Debt Management” in the factsheet should have been titled “Debt Trap”! Yet, Buhari is counting debt-fuelled infrastructure development as an achievement. Not in my book!
Then, take the so-called Social Investment Programme. Again, the government spends billions on naira on this programme even though its impact on poverty-reduction is miniscule. For instance, let’s assume that, according to the government, one million households, not individuals, are receiving the monthly N5,000 conditional cash transfer, what is 1m when nearly 100m Nigerians live in extreme poverty? Nigeria is the poverty capital of the world, yet the government is trumpeting a programme that benefits less than 1 percent of the extreme poor as “the largest and most ambitious social safety net programme in the history of Nigeria.” Counting that as an achievement is like pulling the wool over the eyes of Nigerians.
Space will not permit covering all the so-called achievements in details. But if, as the presidency says, the focus of the administration has been on security, reviving the economy and fighting corruption over the past five years, well, the truth is that it has failed woefully. The economy remains comatose, corruption hasn’t gone away, and insecurity remains widespread. Ove the past five years, killer herdsmen and Boko Haram terrorists have killed and maimed thousands of Nigerians. Recently, Buhari himself said: “I’m surprised that Boko Haram still exists”. Of course, it still exists and operates with impunity and spread!
Truth is, two things characterise the Buhari administration. First, it is a spendthrift, a profligate government, that believes in excessive borrowing and wasteful spending. Second, it believes in institutional tinkering rather than radical reforms. Hence, five years on, it has made no significant difference, absolutely not transformational. So, my verdict on his five-year performance review? Poor!
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