Will Nigeria’s 2025 budget deliver or disappoint?

The Nigerian government has presented a budget proposal of N47.9 trillion for 2025. This has led to widespread debate on whether it can deliver the promised economic relief or fall short.

Key figures in the proposal include a crude oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel, an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar, and a GDP growth target of 4.6 percent.

While these figures project confidence, many Nigerians facing soaring prices and economic hardship find little comfort in them.

Bismarck Rewane, an economist, has been quick to challenge the optimism surrounding the budget. Rewane, who serves as the executive director of Financial Derivatives Company, called the $75 per barrel oil price unrealistic in the face of global uncertainties.

“The benchmark should be closer to $65 per barrel to allow for fiscal flexibility,” he said during a televised interview on Channels Television. His warning highlights the risks of overestimating revenue in a volatile global market, especially with the emergence of President-Elect Donald Trump in the United States.

Fiscal flexibility refers to the government’s ability to adapt its spending plans in response to changes in revenue. By setting a more conservative oil price benchmark, the government ensures it doesn’t rely too heavily on high oil prices to fund its budget.

In the event that oil prices fall, a lower benchmark like $65 per barrel provides a cushion, allowing the government to adjust its spending without making drastic cuts to essential programmes, such as infrastructure and job creation.

Without this flexibility, a sudden drop in oil prices could lead to a budget shortfall and force the government to borrow more or cut vital services.

The government’s plan to borrow N9.22 trillion to fund the budget has also raised alarm bells. While borrowing is not inherently problematic, the issue lies in how the funds will be utilised.

“If funds don’t go into productive sectors like infrastructure and job creation, we’re just piling on debt with no real results,” warned Oyekan Idris, a capital market analyst.

For many, the failings of the 2024 budget remain a fresh wound. That budget, pegged at N27.5 trillion with an exchange rate assumption of N750 to N800, failed to shield Nigerians from rising inflation, worsening poverty, and skyrocketing food and fuel prices.

Critics note that the actual exchange rate has since spiraled far beyond these projections, deepening economic woes for the average citizen.
A social policy expert, who chose to remain anonymous, stressed the urgency of prioritising investments in areas that directly affect ordinary Nigerians.

“This budget must prioritise sectors that create jobs, reduce poverty, and support youth programs,” she said. Without such focus, she added, 2025 could repeat the struggles of 2024.

As President Bola Tinubu prepares to present the budget to the National Assembly, he faces the mounting pressure to deliver results.

While the 2025 plan promises to stabilise the economy and drive growth, its success hinges on effective implementation and whether it can translate to tangible benefits for the masses.

For now, skepticism remains high. Nigerians are eager for change, but the lingering question is: Will this budget deliver, or will it become another missed opportunity? Only time will tell.