Nigeria’s Q1 GDP numbers show poverty still on the rise

There were no surprises in the latest GDP numbers for Nigeria published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday.

Africa’s largest economy expanded at a tepid 0.51 percent in the first quarter of 2021, a rate too slow to reduce rising poverty or address the country’s record unemployment rate (33.3 percent as of the end of 2020) the highest globally after Namibia.

Growth in the three months ending March 2021 was slower than the 1.87percent growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 but higher than 0.11percent recorded in the previous quarter (Q4 2020).

The economy may take another year to return to its pre-pandemic levels, according to the IMF’s estimates.

But even when it does, it will still be too slow to create opportunities for a population expanding at an annual rate of 2.6 percent. The economy has not grown above 2.5 percent since 2015.

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“Positive but fragile GDP growth rate and still below population growth rate, meaning poverty is on the rise,” said Taiwo Oyedele, a partner and head of Tax & Regulatory Services at the consulting firm, PWC.

Nigeria’s poverty rate has been rapidly rising so much so that in 2018 it overtook that of India to become the highest globally despite having only a fifth of India’s population, according to a report by Brookings Institution which said 87 million Nigerians lived below $1.90 a day.

Without reforms, Nigeria’s economy will continue to struggle, according to a motley crew of economic advisers to the President whose pieces of advice have gone largely unheeded since they were first assembled in 2019.

While the economy may have turned the corner since slipping into a recession last year, the oil sector is recovering but not yet out of the woods.

Oil GDP contracted by 2.21 per cent in Q1 compared to a contraction of 19.76 per cent in Q4 2020 and growth of 5.06 per cent in Q1 2020.

Non-oil GDP grew 0.79 per cent in Q1 compared to 1.69 per cent in Q4.