JPMorgan has removed Nigeria from its list of emerging market sovereign recommendations that investors should be ‘overweight’ in, saying Nigeria had not taken advantage of high oil prices.
“Nigeria’s fiscal woes amid a worsening global risk backdrop have raised market concerns despite a positive oil environment”, the organisation said.
The analysts noted that Nigeria’s national oil company, (NNPC), did not transfer any revenue to the government from January to March this year, due to petrol subsidies and low oil production, as it moved Nigeria’s debt out of the bank’s ‘overweight’ category.
A market in the overweight category is seen as one that analysts believe should outperform its industry in the future, than it is in the present.
Emerging market sovereign debt is at the “mercy” of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Monday, as the US central bank’s rate raises drain capital from developing markets.
Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, the biggest jump in 22 years, as it seeks to tame high inflation, while its rate increases also buffet higher-yielding emerging markets.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February caused commodity prices to spike, benefiting exporters.
It moved Serbia to ‘overweight’ as risks had been priced in and the country had high reserves and a fiscally cautious government, the note said, while relatively low debt, despite Russian exposure led them to put Uzbekistan in the same category.
JPMorgan’s Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Diversified (EMBIGD) index has fallen 16% this year, the analysts said, “with most of the losses having come from rates” and $4 billion in net outflows from emerging markets since mid-April.
“The external and fundamental backdrop has become increasingly difficult for EM sovereigns. The COVID lockdown in China poses further downside risks,” the analysts said.
They noted that riskier sovereign yields were now 10.6%, the highest level since the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020, reducing market access and increasing the risk of debt defaults.
However, the analysts said the “front-loaded pain” for emerging market bonds, which they said had begun underperforming in September 2021, was positive.
The over-performance of bonds issued by oil exporters now “looks to have played out”, JPMorgan said.
