With president Buhari’s victory in the 2019 presidential poll, Nigerians should expect no change in policy formulation from, however a faster implementation, according to predictions by research analysts at the investment banking and asset management businesses of FBN Holdings Plc.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Wednesday announced Nigeria’s incumbent president and candidate of the ruling All progressive party, Muhammadu Buhari, winner in a keenly contested presidential election after he polled 56 per cent share of the vote, compared with the 41 per cent from his main contender, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party.
The main opposition party has however rejected the result with its 72-year candidate vowing to challenge the result in court. “In my democratic struggles for the past three decades, I have never seen our democracy so debased as it was on Saturday”, Abubakar said in a tweet. “I hereby reject the result of the February 23, 2019 sham election and will be challenging it in court”.
However, subject to any credible challenges to the outcome of the election, the Lagos-based investment banking firm says it expects the Buhari-led administration to move fairly quickly to form a new government since most likely candidates for posts have been vetted in his first tenure.
“We expect therefore more of the same, although hopefully at a faster pace of implementation”, FBNQuest said in February 28th note to clients.
Buhari, 76 was elected into office in late May 2015 after defeating then President Goodluck Jonathan, to emerge the first-ever president to oust a seating president in the poll, since Africa most populous country returned to democracy.
While President Muhammadu Buhari spent about six months in setting up a cabinet to kickstart his administration, it took him one year later to draft up brilliant policy ideas that he encroached in his Economic and recovery growth plan.
The aftermath of this delay was an acute dollar shortage, spiralling inflation and a devaluation of the Naira that steamed up from a 2014 crash in global oil prices and agitations in the Niger Delta region that pushed the country into its first recession in 27 years. A crisis analyst says Africa largest economy could have averted if it effectively implemented the right policies instead of the delay.
“The leopard is not expected to change its spots. A Buhari administration tends to over-centralize decision-making and has a policy stance that is caricatured as “pro-poor”. It is not anti-business, rather at times wary of it”. FBNQuest said.
The country exited recession in the second quarter of 2017 after expanding 0.72 per cent, thanks to a pick-up in oil prices and the calmness seen in the Niger Delta region.
“Unlike in 2015, President Buhari should be able to move fairly quickly to forming a new government since most likely candidates for posts have been vetted”, FBNQuest said.
Apart from a delay in constituting a cabinet to pilot affairs, there was also a 7 months delay in the signing of the 2018 budget due to a standoff between the Bukola Saraki led-legislature and the Buhari-led executives. The Budget currently holds the record of being the most delayed ever.
However with Saraki losing the senatorial seat as the president, “we should expect signs that the new administration is able to translate its healthy majorities in both houses of the National Assembly into a positive working relationship with the legislature. If it is, we can look forward to smoother passage of the annual budgets and perhaps some progress on the petroleum industry bill. If it is not, we return to the institutional logjam of the first term”.
Nevertheless the delay, Buhari made some remarkable strive in revitalizing the dilapidated infrastructure that has enveloped Nigeria’s landscape over time.
FBN Quest said “Being his second and final term in office, Buhari has an opportunity to create a bit of legacy”
“This suggests a further acceleration of the FGN’s capital releases for the infrastructure, and of its social interventions (such as TraderMoni, the N-power programme, the conditional cash transfers and the school feeding project”.
“We met a large number of foreign portfolio investors earlier in the year, and the majority anticipated Buhari’s re-election. Any post-election rally on the NSE is therefore likely to be based upon relief that the process is over and that the FGN can revert to pursuing its policy agenda”.
MICHEAL ANI
