At 2% growth, Nigeria cannot lift citizens out of poverty

For Nigeria to achieve its ambition of lifting 100 million of its citizens out of poverty within the next 10 years, it must achieve economic growth within the range of 7-10 percent.

This growth must be independent of the oil sector, in order for it to translate to broad base income for Nigerians and create jobs for its youthful citizens which accounts for over 50 percent of its population, according to various economists who spoke at the BusinessDay 2020 Nigerian economic outlook conference.

The economists argued that at the current growth rate of 2 percent, more Nigerians would only continue to get poorer, per capita income would also decline while investment would continue to fall.

“What Nigeria needs now is sustained economic growth, job creation and improved standard of living that is away from the influence of oil,” said Ogho Okiti, managing director, BusinessDay media.

President Muhammadu Buhari last year, said his administration would lift some 10 million Nigerians annually through a period of 10 years.

With a population growing at a rate of 3.25 percent annually, Okiti noted in 10 years’ time, Nigeria might remain where it is if it continues at a 2 percent growth rate which he argued would continue behind populations.

Okiti while delivering his keynote speech, gave four prosperity scenarios for the economy depending on its economic growth.

According to him, if the country continues at 2 percent, it would remain a $400 billion economy, a stagnant GDP while pollution would continue to increase at a geometric rate.

If the economy grows at a 5 percent growth, it’s economy would be around $500 billion, this he said would still not be enough to drive inclusive growth.

However, he said  Nigeria could boost its economy to size $800 billion at a growth rate of 7 percent, while it could have a $1 trillion economy if it grows at a 10 percent growth rate.

Okiti noted that only a 7 and 10 percent growth rate can attract the needed investment which can change the dynamics of its country in the new decades.