The die is cast. The preparations that began several months ago will be tested in matters of hours from now. Edo State is wearing a mixture of great expectation and apprehension. The latter being a direct offshoot of the tough rhetoric and suspicious body languages that had dominated the space in the last few weeks since the campaigns started. But hold, the election must! Has Nigeria given up on the fight against insecurity? Just wondering!
Election on tripod stand
As you well know, all is set for the off-season gubernatorial election in Edo State. The poll follows the search for a successor to fill the seat that will be vacant on November 12, 2024 when the second tenure of the Godwin Obaseki administration will expire. He was first elected in 2016, and won re-election in 2020. Eighteen candidates of different political parties are on the ballot for the all-important contest on Saturday.
A lot is at stake in the election. All the dramatis personae are putting everything they have into what seems a battle of wits. Some people would add “ego.”
A lot of rhetoric is oozing out from various angles in Edo. Various camps have spared no efforts in hurling allegations and counter allegations against those they perceive as their greatest threat.
Despite the hair-splitting and finger-pointing, the election will indeed, hold on Saturday. However, the success or otherwise of the exercise would squarely rest on a tripod, viz: The resilience of Edo voters, the impartiality of security agencies and the integrity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Voters’ resilience
That it would take the never-say-die resolve of the voting masses in Edo to achieve a credible result on Saturday is not arguable. The election would test the resilience of the voters. Would they be able to defy all the rumours and early warning signs to violence? What if there should be a torrential rainfall on that day, would they brace it to troop out to exercise their franchise, and stay through to protect their votes?
The resilience of the voters would also be tested in their ability to resist all manner of carrots that politicians would dangle before them and vote according to the dictates of their minds. Their ability to resist the pull to vote personality and rather vote competence would make the exercise credible.
Some observers have also raised the alarm that the harsh economic weather in the country could lure some voters to sell their voters. The question is, would they resist the offer of some Naira notes in exchange of their votes? Or would they prefer to sacrifice their future on the altar of a few Naira notes? A lot indeed, depends on the people, Samson Itodo, executive director, YIAGA Africa, strongly believes.
The impartiality of the security agents
It would matter a lot what the security agents deployed to keep the peace do in Edo. Already, there are allegations of strong arm-tactic display in Edo State by the security agents against some parties and their supporters. The refusal of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate to sign the peace accord document was on the basis of the party’s belief that the security agencies were playing some hanky-panky. This allegation has since been refuted by the leadership of the security agencies in Abuja. The impartiality of the security agents will be tested during and after the election. Would they uphold neutrality despite the raging concerns that there were some pipers somewhere whose tunes are being danced to by the security agencies. Would they allow the agents of all the parties to have unfettered access, within the ambit of the Electoral Act, to collation centres and to INEC Result Viewing (IRev) portal? Some political parties had in the past accused the security agents of chasing their agents away during result collation and counting.
The integrity of INEC
The electoral umpire is facing a serious integrity test in Edo. What INEC does or fails to do on Saturday will either make or mar the election. One of the political parties has consistently raised the alarm that it was not comfortable with going into the election with the state resident electoral commissioner (REC). The party had alleged that the REC was going to favour another party. They also called for the redeployment of the REC, but were assured that there is no cause for alarm.
Would the Commission promptly deploy materials to the 4,519 polling units in all the 192 electoral wards without excuses bordering on logistics? Would the umpire maintain consistency in applying the rule of suspending election where there is substantial disruption, as it has done in some other previous elections elsewhere? What if a result or rerun is declared under durex or involuntarily contrary to the law and guidelines, would the umpire invoke its power to review such a mistake? Where there are proven cases of over-voting, would the INEC strictly cancel elections there? The transparency of the INEC at the collation centres, at the ward and local government area level will go a long way in making the election credible.
The INEC is just trying to come out from the integrity deficit it suffered as a result of the manner it handled the 2023 general election. It will be in its own interest to ensure that the Edo election would offer the needed ladder to climb out of the dungeon of the public opprobrium it has been wallowing in.
A battle of wits
Some observers say that it is a battle of ego and wits for political gladiators in the state. A lot of interest has been brought into the election, hence, the highly competitive exercise to be witnessed on Saturday. But all men and women of goodwill are saying, “Let Edo vote and not fight.”
Read also: Nigeria’s insecurity crisis: A threat to national and global food security
Have we given up on insecurity?
The way this thing is going, it appears Nigerians have come to live with the insecurity challenge perpetually. The situation is getting out of hand. No day ever passes without report of killings from one part of the country to the other. Nobody is providing explanation why there is so much wastage of innocent lives.
In the last few days, the reports have been numbing on the attacks by bandits and Boko Haram insurgents, and the high casualty figures. These people that are being killed are fellow Nigerians.
Zamfara State appears to be the hotbed of bandits. Last Thursday, a major road, Gusau-Funtua- was blocked by bandits who eventually abducted many people and killed a number of others. The bandits were said to have invaded the area on bikes, wielding AK-47. There were also reported killings in Kaduna, Plateau and many other places in the last one week. How can a nation continue this way?
What is the Federal Government doing about the too many ungoverned places in the North that have become bandits’ and Boko Haram enclave?
The allegation that there is political interference in the fight against insecurity has continued to fester, yet, the government seems not to respond.
A notorious bandit leader, Bello Turji, known by many high and mighty in the north is still looming large. He is said to be enjoying a lot of following. It is also said that many government officials are behind him, and does whatever he wants without qualms. He is said to have been turbanded by a traditional ruler, and he is openly levying farmers without challenge from any quarter. Is Abuja not aware of all these?
They kill our soldiers, police and many innocent citizens, yet go scot-free. We hear of our soldiers being killed in an ambush. Security experts have said that ambush can only succeed when somebody has told the bandits that at such and such a time, these people will pass through such and such place. It means there are many fifth columnists inside the nation’s security network. The National Security Adviser and all the security chiefs must rethink their strategies. Things are not looking up at all!
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