The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced full-year global passenger traffic results for 2021 showing that demand (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) fell by 58.4 percent compared to the full year of 2019. This represented an improvement compared to 2020 when full-year RPKs were down 65.8 percent versus 2019.
Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to the respective 2019 period, which followed a normal demand pattern.
International passenger demand in 2021 was 75.5 percent below 2019 levels. Capacity, (measured in available seat kilometers or ASKs) declined 65.3 percent and load factor fell 24.0 percentage points to 58.0 percent.
Domestic demand in 2021 was down 28.2percent compared to 2019. Capacity contracted by 19.2 percent and load factor dropped 9.3 percentage points to 74.3 percent.
Total traffic for the month of December 2021 was 45.1percent below the same month in 2019, improved from the 47.0 percent contraction in November, as monthly demand continued to recover despite concerns over Omicron. Capacity was down 37.6 percent and load factor fell 9.8 percentage points to 72.3 percent.
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Impact of Omicron Measures: Omicron travel restrictions slowed the recovery in international demand by about two weeks in December. International demand has been recovering at a pace of about four percentage points/month compared to 2019. Without Omicron, we would have expected international demand for the month of December to improve to around 56.5 percent below 2019 levels. Instead, volumes rose marginally to 58.4 percent below 2019 from -60.5 percent in November.
“Overall travel demand strengthened in 2021. That trend continued into December despite travel restrictions in the face of Omicron. That says a lot about the strength of passenger confidence and the desire to travel. The challenge for 2022 is to reinforce that confidence by normalizing travel. While international travel remains far from normal in many parts of the world, there is momentum in the right direction.
“Last week, France and Switzerland announced significant easing of measures. And yesterday the UK removed all testing requirements for vaccinated travellers. We hope others will follow their important lead, particularly in Asia where several key markets remain in virtual isolation,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director-general said.
European carriers saw a 67.6 percent traffic decline in 2021 versus 2019. Capacity fell 57.4 percent and load factor decreased 20.6 percentage points to 65.0 percent. For the month of December, traffic slid 41.5 percent compared to December 2019, an improvement over the 43.5 percent year-to-year decline in November.
African airlines’ international traffic fell 65.2 percent last year compared to 2019, which was the best performance among regions.
Capacity dropped 56.7 percent, and load factor sank 14.1 percentage points to 57.3 percent. Demand for the month of December was 60.5 percent below the year-ago period, a deterioration from the 56.5 percent decline in November, owing to the impact of government travel restrictions in response to Omicron.
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