The leading contributing sectors to GDP in 2019

Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at basic constant price (real GDP) grew by 2.27 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from N69.80 trillion in 2018 to N71.39 trillion in 2019 compared to 1.91 per cent in 2018. The growth was largely due to the contributions of the agricultural sector (N10.50 trillion), trade sector (N5.94 trillion) and the information and communication sector (N4.66 trillion) with 25.2 per cent, 16 per cent and 13 per cent shares of the total GDP respectively in 2019.

Similarly, the GDP grew by 2.55 per cent (YoY) in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019 to N707.57 billion compared to the N696.78 billion in Q4 2018 when it recorded a growth rate of 2.38 percent. This growth between the two periods which represents an increase of 0.17 per cent points and is largely because of the contribution of the three aforementioned sectors.

Source: NBS, BRIU

From the previous quarter (Q3 2019), a 5.59 percentage increase was also recorded in Q4 2019, whereas, only the agricultural sector from the three major sectors recorded a decline of 5.82 per cent with the remaining two having a significant 10.9 per cent (trade) and 22.2 percent (information & communication). The significant Q4 2019 growth rate also stood as the highest quarterly growth performance since the 2016 recession.

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In nominal terms, the aggregate 2019 GDP grew by 12.90 per cent to N144.21 trillion from N127.74 trillion in the corresponding year; a major contribution from the agricultural sector (N31.90 trillion), trade sector (N22.51 trillion), manufacturing sector (N16.78 trillion), the information and communication sector (N15.40 trillion), as well as the mining and quarrying sector (N12.77 trillion).

Source: NBS, BRIU

Of the five sectors, agriculture contributed about 22.12 per cent to the total nominal GDP in 2019. It was followed by trade, 15.61 per cent; manufacturing, 11.64 per cent; information and communication, 10.68 per cent, and 8.85 per cent mining and quarrying contribution to GDP.

In Q4 2019, aggregate GDP stood at N39.58 trillion in nominal terms. This was higher than the Q4 2018 which recorded an aggregate of N35.23 trillion, representing a YoY nominal growth rate of 12.34 per cent. This rate was down by 0.31 percentage points relative to the rate recorded in the Q4 2018 and –0.96 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis (QoQ), the nominal GDP increased by 4.68 per cent from N37.81 trillion in Q3 2019. However, only two out of the five sectors with major contribution recorded increase within Q3 and Q4 2019. agricultural sector, manufacturing sector and mining and quarrying sector all recorded a decline of 5.40 per cent, 3.61 per cent and 27.25 per cent respectively between Q3 and Q4 2019.

The agricultural sector alone contributed 26.09 per cent to the real GDP in Q4 2019 owing to the large contribution of “Crop Production”. This is followed by the trade sector with 15.99 per cent contribution while a 13.12 per cent contribution of the information and communication sector to total GDP was recorded in the same period owing to the growth in the “Broadcasting Subsector”. The real GDP of the three sectors jointly contributed 55.20 per cent to the total GDP in Q4 2019.

Source: NBS, BRIU

Of the three sectors, only the trade sector recorded a negative growth rate of -0.58 per cent in Q4 2019 real GDP compared to the corresponding year. Whereas, agriculture and information and communication were up by 2.31 per cent and 8.50 per cent in Q4 2019 YoY.

“Crop production” at 90.28 per cent was dominant in the agricultural sector while “Broadcasting” was dominant in the information and communication sector in the sane quarter.

Source: NBS, BRIU

Since the Nigerian economy can be categorized into for main sectors: First, the real sector which comprises all the producing and consuming units of an economy. Second, the external sector which accounts for the transactions of the economy (consume or provide) with the rest of the world. Third is the government sector, that is, the public sector (central governments, the local governments, public corporations) which takes from the rest of the economy. Fourth, the monetary sector, that is, the deposit-taking institutions (banks), there is need to make or improve on policies to increase productivity as these sectors do not work in isolation of one another, rather they influence one another.