…post-rebasing figures estimate sector’s output at ₦41.3trn
The real estate sector in Nigeria has, over the last five years, demonstrated resilience, powering on in its ranking and contribution to the country’s GDP despite the impact of adverse economic conditions and the Covid-19 pandemic.
The pandemic, which took the better part of 2020-2021, initially disrupted construction and property transactions in 2020, with the sector’s GDP share dipping to approximately 2.9 percent, down from its 3.0 – 3.5 percent share from 2015-2019.
Similarly, the persistent rise in inflation, which once peaked at 34.48 percent, coupled with a high exchange rate and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary policy rate at 27 percent, strained the sector, affecting its ranking and contribution to GDP.
However, the sector bounced back strongly, recovering to 3.2 percent by 2021 as demand for residential space increased due to remote work trends and continued urbanisation pressures.
The social distancing rule that came with the pandemic emptied offices and workplaces, compelling workers to convert their residences into offices. That triggered demand for more residential housing as available stock proved insufficient.
Continuing in its growth trajectory, the sector’s ranking moved up from 6th in 2022 to 5th in 2023, while its nominal share of GDP within the same period jumped from 2.9-3.6 percent to 6.2 percent.
The 2025 GDP rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) marked what CFG Advisory in its recent report called “a structural revelation” in the sector. This exercise fundamentally transformed the understanding of the sector’s economic weight.
According to the report, the impact of 2025 GDP rebasing on real estate sector metrics shows that, by 2024, post-rebasing figures indicate real estate output reaching ₦41.3 trillion in nominal terms, solidifying its position as the third-largest sector.
“As of Q1 2024, the NBS reported that real estate contributed 5.20 percent to real GDP, ranking the sector third behind crop production (17.58 percent of nominal GDP) and trade (17.42 percent).
The sector displaced crude petroleum and natural gas, which fell to fifth position with approximately 4–5 percent of GDP. By Q1 2025, the sector’s performance accelerated further, showing nominal contribution at ₦16.42 trillion (in Q1 alone), which represents 17.4 percent of quarterly nominal GDP,” the report says.
The report shows further that the sector’s real contribution within the period stood at 13.30 percent of quarterly real GDP, while quarterly growth stood at 18.08 percent, nominal growth, up from 8.73 percent in the previous quarter. Some estimates for Q2 2025 suggest the sector’s share may have reached 12.8 percent of real GDP, though this requires verification against official NBS releases.
The report identifies demographic and urbanization pressures as major drivers of this growth, explaining that Nigeria’s population exceeded 220 million by 2025, growing at approximately 2.6 percent annually. This demographic expansion, combined with rapid rural-to-urban migration, has created enormous housing demand.
Though this is seen as a socio-economic problem, investment experts say it represents a huge opportunity for investors in both sales and rental apartments, citing a city like Lagos with an estimated three million housing deficit, and a very active rental market where about 80 percent of its 22 million population lives in rented accommodation.
In the same vein, the national housing deficit is estimated at 28 million units, requiring approximately 700,000 new homes annually to bridge the gap. Major urban centres—Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kano, and Ibadan —have experienced particularly intense property demand, driving both residential and commercial real estate development.
The federal government has, however, come up with some economic diversification policies, giving rise to initiatives aimed at reducing oil dependency, which have systematically supported real estate growth.
These include Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), which prioritises infrastructure and housing; National Housing Fund (NHF) expansion and mortgage refinancing schemes. The NHF scheme has moved its maximum housing loan amount from N10 million to N50 million, increasing the capacity of home seekers to buy.
The CFG Advisory report also locates the reason for the sector’s performance in improved data capture and formalization. It explains that the 2025 GDP rebasing incorporated better coverage of informal real estate activities, which constitute a substantial portion of the property market.
These improvements include enhanced surveying of informal property transactions, better valuation of rental housing services, inclusion of emerging sub-sectors such as co-working spaces, student housing, short-term rentals, and recognition of digital real estate platforms and tech-enabled property finance.
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