Trump’s Venezuela oil grab squeezes Nigeria out of America’s market

Nigeria is losing ground in the United States crude oil market as Washington deepens its engagement with Venezuela’s oil sector following the dramatic arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and a sweeping shift in US sanctions policy.

Fresh US crude import data for the first quarter of 2026 show a decline in Nigerian crude purchases compared with the same period of 2025, while imports from Venezuela have surged amid renewed American interest in the Latin American country’s vast oil reserves.

Data obtained from the US import records show that total American crude imports from Nigeria fell to 7.84 million barrels in the first quarter of 2026 from 8.43 million barrels recorded during the same period in 2025.

Read also: Trump’s Venezuela oil grab to shrink Nigeria’s $2.9bn US market

The value of Nigerian crude exports to the US also weakened. Year-to-date imports from Nigeria stood at about $561.7 million by March 2026, compared with approximately $663.8 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

The sharpest drop came in March 2026 when US crude imports from Nigeria plunged to 1.54 million barrels valued at $111 million, compared with 3.17 million barrels worth $250 million in March 2025.

In contrast, Venezuela strengthened its position in the US market.

American imports of Venezuelan crude rose to 24.25 million barrels in the first quarter of 2026, up from 21.81 million barrels in the same period of 2025.

The value of Venezuelan crude exports to the US climbed to $1.58 billion by March 2026, compared with $1.46 billion during the corresponding period last year.

March 2026 alone saw Venezuelan crude exports to the US jump sharply to 12.6 million barrels worth $858 million, almost double the 7.06 million barrels valued at $475 million recorded in March 2025.

The changing trade flows came as the administration of President Donald Trump intensified its geopolitical and energy strategy around Venezuela after US forces captured Maduro in January 2026 in a controversial military operation that Washington described as part of a counter-narcotics and anti-terrorism campaign.

According to reports, the operation marked a dramatic escalation in US involvement in Venezuela and triggered a rapid restructuring of the country’s political and energy architecture.

The development is increasingly reshaping Atlantic Basin crude trade, creating fresh concerns for Nigeria at a time when Africa’s largest oil producer is already struggling with weak production growth, theft, pipeline sabotage and underinvestment.

Read also:Shares of US oil companies jump after Venezuela operation

Analysts said the renewed American access to Venezuelan barrels poses a direct competitive threat to Nigeria.

According to a recent US Congressional Research Service report, Washington has moved swiftly to tighten control over Venezuela’s oil industry after Maduro’s removal from office. The report noted that US officials intend to influence “oil sales and proceeds” in Venezuela while limiting the role of American adversaries in the sector.

“Trump said the US will ‘run’ Venezuela until a transition takes place and subsequently stated that Venezuelan officials would turn over ‘sanctioned oil,’ reportedly worth some $3 billion, and negotiate an energy deal in which the US will largely control Venezuela’s oil industry,” the congress stated.

Washington asserted that Maduro’s vice president and oil minister Delcy Rodríguez, who is under US sanctions for corruption, appears willing “to do what we think is necessary” as acting president. If not, Trump warned, she could “pay a very big price.”

The policy shift has already translated into higher Venezuelan crude flows into the US, particularly as Washington eases restrictions around Venezuelan oil trading and authorises broader energy-sector activities involving the country.

For Nigeria, the implications are significant.

The US was historically one of Nigeria’s largest crude buyers before the American shale revolution drastically reduced dependence on imported oil. Although Nigeria regained modest traction in the US market in recent years due to refinery demand for specific grades and supply disruptions elsewhere, that recovery now appears under pressure from Venezuela’s resurgence.

Industry analysts noted that many US Gulf Coast refineries are specifically configured to process heavier crude grades similar to Venezuelan output.

As sanctions ease and supply channels reopen, Venezuelan barrels are becoming increasingly attractive to refiners because of proximity, pricing discounts and improving diplomatic ties between Washington and Caracas.

“Venezuela is strategically important because its heavy crude is compatible with complex US refineries,” an energy analyst familiar with Atlantic Basin trade flows said. “If Washington is actively facilitating Venezuelan oil exports again, Nigeria inevitably loses some competitive advantage.”

Read also: Trump moves to block courts from seizing Venezuelan oil revenue in US accounts – Reuters

The challenge for Nigeria is compounded by persistent domestic production weakness.

Nigeria has repeatedly struggled to meet its OPEC production quota due to oil theft, vandalism, ageing infrastructure and delayed upstream investment. Although output has shown intermittent improvements, production remains below historic levels.

This means Nigeria is entering a more competitive export environment with weakened supply capacity just as Venezuelan barrels return aggressively to the market.

Congressional findings indicated that Venezuela’s crude production, which had collapsed below 500,000 barrels per day in 2020 under sanctions pressure, rebounded significantly by 2025 before accelerating further under the new US-backed arrangements.

Energy economists said the broader geopolitical calculation extends beyond crude imports alone.

Washington increasingly views Venezuela as a strategic energy and regional security asset amid tensions involving Iran, China and global supply chains. Analysts believed the US wants tighter influence over Venezuelan oil exports to reduce Chinese access to discounted sanctioned crude while simultaneously stabilising supply to American refiners.

For Nigeria, weaker US demand could force exporters to intensify competition in Europe and Asia, where buyers already have access to discounted Russian crude and expanding Middle Eastern supply.

The situation may also increase pressure on Nigeria to accelerate long-delayed oil sector reforms, improve security around critical infrastructure and boost domestic refining capacity, particularly through projects such as the Dangote Group refinery.

“If Nigeria cannot reliably grow production while competitors are returning to the market, buyers will naturally diversify away,” said Muda Yusuf, Director/Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). He said the country already has forward sales that need servicing because funds were borrowed to rehabilitate the refineries among others.

Read also: Five things to know about oil in Venezuela

The emerging Venezuela-US oil establishment or restoration of friendly, harmonious relations between the two countries highlights how quickly geopolitical developments can alter global energy flows.

Only a few years ago, Venezuela’s oil sector was largely isolated under sweeping American sanctions. Today, Washington is actively restructuring the country’s oil industry following Maduro’s arrest while facilitating expanded energy transactions.