What worsening insecurity means for 2023 election

With the 2023 general election drawing closer, stakeholders have expressed concern about the spate of insecurity across the country and the impact it could have on the smooth conduct of the elections.

The escalating security situation in Nigeria has affected the conduct of elections in recent years; there have been increased militarisation of the voting environment due to increased violence often perpetrated by supporters of desperate politicians.

In the last seven years, the spate of insecurity across Nigeria has worsened, the situation is particularly worse in the North-East and North-West, with many lives lost to kidnapping, Boko Haram insurgency and separatist movements.

Nigerians are not sure who would be the next victim, while nowhere is safe for now.

Just some days ago, President Muhammadu Buhari’s advance security team was attacked with some officers killed and several vehicles damaged.

In another of such deadly attacks, Boko Haram terrorists the same day launched a ferocious attack on Kuje Correctional Centre, deploying bombs, Rocket Propelled Grenade (RPG) and General Purpose Machine Guns (GPMG), and freeing no less than 600 inmates, including Boko Haram fighters detained at the facility.

Reports said six inmates and one security personnel were killed during the attack.

Minister of Defence, Bashir Magashi (rtd) said of the 994 inmates at the prison, 600 escaped.

The situation also forced the relocation of other high profile detainees, notably, Deputy Commissioner of Police, Abba Kyari, among others.

Terrorists also invaded three communities in Kaduna and killed twenty people, while 25 women were abducted during the attack.

An eyewitness told newsmen that the bandits numbering about 30 came on motorcycles to carry out the attack on the villages.

Across Nigeria, attacks and kidnapping for ransom have become daily occurrences in which high profile Nigerians have also been affected.

The concern for many is that if the bandits and terrorists can attack the Nigerian Defence Academy, invade airport, attack the President’s advance security team, invade prison to release over 1,200 inmates without challenge, amid taking communities hostage and hoisting their flags in some settlements, then there is no safety in the country.

For many, the present fear for safety, amid the alarming rate of attacks on lives and property across the country pose a big risk for the success of the 2023 general election.

Just like the way a secured and enabling environment boosts investor confidence in a state, the same way a safe domain is key to the turnout of voters, the deployment of ad-hoc staff, including the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members and, to a large extent, the credibility of the poll.

Discussions about Nigeria’s situation have become rife as elections approach; to elect who Nigerians think will transform and redeem the state from the cliff position.

As the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) intensifies preparations for next years’ elections, experts say that the situation calls for serious concerns, and that if not checked could undermine the conduct of free and fair elections.

Particular source of concern is the North and South-East, where the terrorists and unknown gunmen are very active.

Similarly, experts say the worsening spate of insecurity was responsible for the increasing voter apathy in the country, while the situation may continue in next year’s election.

They noted that increased militarisation of elections in some states in recent years have compounded the situation.

Tunde Ajayi, business intelligence expert, lamented that the security situation had aggravated in recent years partly because, security agencies only respond to security threats that affect government officials, political leaders and the elite rather than what affect an average Nigerian.

Ajayi predicted that the spate of violence in Nigeria would affect voter turnout in next year’s general elections, if there was no effort to check the trend.

He added that violence in Nigeria has been democratised, while non-state actors are involved in it, stressing that it is a different situation now compared to 2019.

According to him, “The high number of Nigerians registering to get their Permanent Voter Card (PVC) would improve voter turnout. Everybody else is less important to the security apparatus, it is focused on the administration in power and the elite,” AJayi said.

Ikechukwu Nwanna, president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) in Lagos State, said the current trend called for concern ahead of next year’s election that must be urgently checked by the Federal Government.

According to him, “It is a major danger to our general election next year. Our elections in recent years have been marred by violence, but we have not had this level of insecurity before across Nigeria.

“The electorate may fear; they don’t want to endanger their lives, and refuse to come out to vote. In some cases it can delay delivery of election materials.

“I call on the security agencies to do their work and stop the current spate of insecurity in Nigeria now.”

Chijioke Umelahi, an Abuja-based lawyer, decried that even the president is not safe, for bandits to attack his advance team.

“We thought that Mr. President is their man. Why are they attacking him indirectly? Imagine if the over 300 bandits that invaded Kuje Prison were unleashed on Election Day, who would step out to vote? We are in a more precarious situation than Ukraine now; it is just that the UN and other international bodies are believing all the lies from the government. The government is involved and can silence the bandits and terrorists if it is serious about it”, he lamented.

Speaking further, Umelahi, a former Abia lawmaker, who lost out in the primaries for the House of Representatives seat for the Ohafia/Arochukwu Federal Constituency, said that the 2023 general election would hold but would be marred by more irregularities and voter apathy than before because of the alarming rate of insecurity in the country.

“My fear is that the bandits may resort to ballot box snatching at gunpoint for money from politicians, they may also warn communities not to step out to vote, and even blockade security operatives from intervening in their areas of control during election. The defenseless citizens will stay back because the government has disappointed them over the years and the election victory will go to the wrong hands again,” Umelahi disclosed.

For Sam Onikoyi, a Nigerian lecturer and research fellow in Belgium, what the worsening insecurity means for the 2023 general election is fear of attacks or bloodbath for innocent voters that step out to vote.

The Nigerian in the Diaspora is more aggrieved that many of his countrymen who want to exercise their civic rights would be casualties of the various election violence and senseless attacks by bandits during and after the 2023 elections.

“I think the government in power intends to use the insecurity in the country to its advantage on Election Day. What responsible governments all over the world usually do before elections is to ensure that safety of lives and properties of the citizens are secured to enable the voters to come out to exercise their civic duties.

“Of course, the bandits will be at work in 2023, but will want to use their rising negative influence to either obstruct the election or rig in favour of their supporters, which are obviously growing going by the way they are breaking jails and challenging soldiers in Nigeria,” he said.

Onikoyi admonished those who say that despite insecurity the 2023 general election will hold to rethink because there have been some unimaginable changes, shifts and moves in recent times.

“What if the bandits go suicidal on Election Day, killing any voter they see, what if they decide to bomb INEC offices a week to election to destroy voting materials, what if they go after the candidates, you think they cannot and why not if they can attack Mr. President’s advance team. Things have changed including the hope for peaceful 2023 elections, which may be delayed because of insecurity. Let’s watch, things are already unfolding and the government, which is in recess mode already, will only watch from a distance,” Onikoyi lamented.

In the same vein, Elvis Omejiaku, a director of strategy at an Abuja-based civil right organisation, decried that what the growing insecurity means for the 2023 general election is inconclusive election.

While the parties and politicians are planning with their thugs and security operatives on how to rig the election results in their favour, Omejiaku fears that there may be no voters at most polling units because of the fear of insecurity.

“We work with global networks and the data and intelligence information for Nigeria on security is not pleasant at all. In 2023, people will give priority to their safety rather than helping a politician to achieve his selfish aims because all those aspiring to be president are all doing so for their selfish interests and not for national good.

“If all the soldiers and police were sent away before the bandits invaded Kuje Prison, the same will happen in areas that politicians think will give them winning votes, and informed voters will stay away. Voter apathy will rise because of insecurity”, he said.

Generally, many think the level of insecurity will keep voters in the safety of their homes during the 2023 general elections, while ballot snatching and other irregularities may result in inconclusive elections and possibly rerun of the election.

Speaking with BusinessDay Sunday, Adams Aliu, a Benin-based constitutional lawyer, said the prevailing security challenge will not deter eligible voters from exercising their franchise on the day of election because the only way to change the rising insecurity threatening livelihoods across the country is to cast their votes for their preferred candidate.

The legal practitioner described the menace of kidnapping and other criminal elements as a “flash in the pan”, and urged the electorate to brace up ahead of the election.

Aliu pointed out that the constitution provides that security and welfare are the aims of government, and if the government cannot secure the lives of citizens, then they do not have business being in government.

“Nigerians should be encouraged to go and vote. Voting is a right, it is not optional. The recent attacks will not prevent people to cast their votes. What we are witnessing now is why Nigerians should use their PVC to change the status quo if they feel it is bad.

“The current insecurity situation is a challenge on the government to prove that they are not culpable or conspiring because people are trying to insinuate that there are powers behind those kidnapping people or doing all sort of criminal activities.

“These criminals have attempted to bring security lapses to the homes of government, they should be apprehended, tried and punished accordingly to serve as deterrent to others,” Aliu said.

Read also: Federal Government urged to be proactive in war against insecurity

Timothy Ogbe, a Benin resident, said: “There are several threats to the electoral processes and insecurity is one of them. Aside vote buying and violence, which has, in the past, characterised Nigeria’s elections, the current insecurity situation, which include but not limited to kidnapping, is affecting everyone.

“Today, Nigerians can no longer sleep with their two eyes closed. Anytime you listen to news, you hardly hear something good these days; it’s either clergymen are kidnapped or bandits attack some persons in certain communities.

“These things play key roles in voting pattern. You don’t expect people to troop out of their houses or travel interstate when they know danger await them on the road, rail, air or bush paths. We are in a dilemma and something needs to be done before, during and after the election,” Ogbe said.

Read also: What worsening insecurity means for 2023 election

Why insecurity won’t affect 2023 election – Agbakoba

But in an exclusive interview with BusinessDay Sunday, Olisa Agbakoba, a senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), said that the insecurity would not affect the election.

“Insecurity has a number of elements. What I have noticed is that regime protection is always uppermost in the scheme of things. When the regime is threatened a security system works. There will be no problem of insecurity because there is regime protection. The state does not spare anything to ensure that its powers are not threatened. Look at Ekiti gubernatorial election, it went calmly. Osun is also going to go calmly. 2023 election will also go calmly,” he said.