BusinessDay

Peter Obi leads in new poll, Google search interest

...Jobs, economy drive decisions of most respondents

A new poll finds that Peter Obi, the flag-bearer of the Labour Party, is the “most preferred” candidate to win the 2023 presidential election.

The poll was conducted by Premise, a San Francisco-based data analytic company, for Bloomberg News.

The survey, which was conducted between September 5 and 20, 2022, showed 72 percent of the decided voters chose Obi as their preferred choice. Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress followed with 16 percent, while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party came in third with 8 percent.

“Seventy-two percent of decided voters name Peter Obi as their preferred choice for president, followed by Bola Tinubu (16 percent) and Atiku Abubakar (8 percent). Obi also leads among undecided voters (45 percent),” Premise wrote in the polls result published Wednesday.

“Obi’s support is the greatest among women aged 18-24 (82 percent) and the least among men aged 25-34 (59 percent). He commands a lead among both genders and all ages of the 92 percent of Nigerians who say they have decided for whom to vote and who say they will vote.”

Forty-one percent of the poll respondents said economy and jobs are their top concerns, 31 percent said they are more concerned about corruption, and 16 percent are more concerned about national security.

Read also: Peter Obi and the 2023 presidential election

“The results show that the candidacy of Peter Obi cannot be dismissed. He commands considerable nationwide support across all ages and genders. Furthermore, his candidacy comes at a time of profound political disaffection, economic pressure, and internal insecurity,” the report on the poll said.

“Obi’s candidacy may have excited imaginations too. Nigerians look keen to participate at the polls, and most of them expect the elections to reflect their genuine choice, despite the widespread fear of violence.”

According to Premise, the poll got responses from 3,973 Nigerians, and respondents were selected according to quotas developed by age, gender, and geography to ensure representation across Nigeria’s six diverse geopolitical regions.

“Submissions were subject to rigorous quality control. Results were then weighted against the original quota targets derived from the 2006 Nigerian census and demographic projections dating from 2019, ensuring overall national representativeness,” it said.

BusinessDay’s analysis of Google Trends data from September 1 to September 28 shows Obi generated the most search interest at 67 percent, followed by Tinubu at 59 percent, and Atiku at 39 percent.

The same data showed Obi dominating in the southern region of the country, except in the South-West. He is keenly contesting the western part of the country with Tinubu, the leading candidate in terms of search interest, especially in Lagos and Ogun states – referred to as the Rockies in previously published voting pattern reports – because of their unpredictable voting pattern.

Obi also dominates some states in the North-Central but is not a force at all in the eastern and western parts of the North, which has been majorly dominated by Atiku.

Two weeks ago, the outcome of an opinion poll by ANAP Foundation showed Obi holding a significant lead over both Tinubu and Atiku.

In the nationwide poll conducted this month, Obi stands at 21 percent while both Tinubu and Atiku are tied in second place with 13 percent each. Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party is at a distant fourth with only 3 percent.

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