How Amaechi’s presidential bid hit the rocks twice in four years

Rotimi Amaechi’s quest to become Nigeria’s president has suffered two major setbacks within four years after losing presidential primaries in both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

The former Rivers State governor and ex-minister of Transportation first came second during the APC presidential primary ahead of the 2023 general election, losing to Bola Tinubu.

Amaechi again suffered defeat in the ADC presidential primary for the 2027 election as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar overwhelmingly secured the party’s ticket.

The developments have raised questions about Amaechi’s capacity to build a broad national coalition and political structure required to actualise his presidential ambition despite his strong political pedigree and influence in the South-South.

At the APC Special National Convention held in Abuja in June 2022, Tinubu defeated 13 other aspirants after polling 1,271 votes through the indirect primary system.

Amaechi came second with 316 votes, while former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo secured 235 votes.

Other aspirants included Dave Umahi, Yahaya Bello, Ahmad Lawan and Ben Ayade.

Following the APC primary defeat and growing disagreements within the ruling party, Amaechi later aligned himself with opposition coalition forces seeking to unseat President Tinubu in 2027.

He subsequently defected to the ADC where he again declared his intention to contest for president, promising to serve only one term and hand over power to the North in 2031 in line with the nation’s informal power-sharing arrangement between the North and the South.

However, despite the renewed push, Amaechi’s ambition again suffered a major blow as Atiku defeated him during the ADC direct primary election conducted across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Atiku polled 1,846,370 votes out of the 2,527,977 votes cast in the exercise, while Amaechi secured 504,117 votes. Economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen came third with 177,120 votes.

The ADC adopted the direct primary option after efforts to produce a consensus candidate among the three aspirants collapsed.

Results of the exercise were collated and officially announced Wednesday night at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja.

Amaechi, however, rejected the outcome of the exercise, alleging irregularities in the process. But in what appeared to be an early reconciliation effort aimed at stabilising the opposition coalition, Atiku met with Amaechi behind closed doors in Abuja on Thursday.

Analysts say it may take a long time before Amaechi gets a realistic shot at the presidency, citing Nigeria’s informal power-sharing arrangement between the North and South.

They argued that if the arrangement is sustained and not disrupted, power may return to the North in 2031 for another possible eight years, potentially delaying the return of the presidency to the South until 2039.

However, political observers insist that Amaechi’s future presidential ambition cannot be completely ruled out, especially given the fluid nature of Nigerian politics, shifting alliances and the possibility of realignments ahead of future elections.

Jackson Lekan Ojo, political analyst, told BusinessDay that Amaechi must strengthen his grassroots appeal beyond regional strongholds, deepen alliances across the North and other geopolitical zones, and build a more formidable nationwide political network if he hopes to stand a stronger chance in future presidential contests.