Before the 2012 #Occupy Ojota protest over fuel price increase, Nigerians were getting back to life after the economic recession of 2008/2009, things were hard, the economy was not doing well. It took that decision by the Goodluck Jonathan to attract the ire of Nigerians, particularly members of the opposition party at the time. From that point, the Jonathan administration consistently lost the support of many Nigerians and it fell out of grace as it were. That culminated in the disastrous defeat by the then budding All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015 presidential election.
Economists say that by 2023, the Nigerian economy will be smaller than what it was in 2015. The permutation is that if what is happening now, with the #EndSARS protest, which many say is an offshoot of years of bottled-up anger over the unfortunate state of affairs in the country, like the #OccupyOjota set the tone for Jonathan’s and PDP defeat in 2015, the #EndSARS could dovetail into APC sack in 2023.
It is interesting to note that the current protest is coming three years the next general election, and it was also about three years to the 2015 election when the protest took place in 2012. It is just some difference in months.
Observers say that since 2015, it is the first time a protest of the magnitude it is happening now would take place against the current government. Before now, there was that mortal fear that a huge and ubiquitous civil disobedience of the type we are seeing was not possible; today it has proven to be possible.
But by far, the current protests may have triggered a deeper disaffection and accumulated in anger against the current status quo and especially the current administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which experts feared may suffer a collateral electoral damage in the 2023 general election.
President Buhari, to whom many have placed their trust, appears to have failed to address the problems he inherited from his predecessor and things have steadily worsened in the last five years in spite of the many promises of the Buhari government.
Second Republic lawmaker, Junaid Muhammad has warned that judging by the groundswell of frustration in the land following increasing hardship the Buhari and the APC government might not survive up to 2023.
He said: “Nigerians are today very angry lots, angry on a number of fronts and angry for a number of reasons. First, I think it is clear that the Buhari administration has failed in solving the problems of the country. He has not delivered on what he promised.
“APC lacks ideas and the Buhari administration is a very fertile ground for low-key pre-revolutionary to revolutionary activities and anything can happen because clearly the man who is the Nigerian President today is not in charge. The security services particularly the armed forces and the paramilitary are not in charge, the economy is in tatters and there is massive corruption in government, mismanagement of our resources and the arbitrariness in government. So, I am not sure the government can survive from now till 2023.”
Public Affairs analyst and columnist, Majeed Dahiru said the protest is not an end in itself, it might be a means to a bigger end. He said that some of the demands the protesters are making such as the reform of the police, the disbandment of SARS and bringing to justice the people that committed crime against humanity as well as the call for the increment of the salaries of police officers are things that cannot be done by a stroke of the pen.
“These are options can only be carried out thoroughly by an equally reformed government processes. So, I am beginning to feel that probably the #ENDSARS movement might be a movement towards putting pressure for the overhaul of governance system. That might be the ultimate aim of the #ENDSARS movement,” he said.
He added that the #ENDSARS protest is also a euphemism for calling for real change, stressing that there is pent up frustration and anger.
When asked whether the protests might lead to the downfall of the APC Government, Dahiru answered in the affirmative.
He said: “Whenever there is a movement like this, it is always directed at the government of the day even though some of the things they are protesting against might not be the making of the government. This might be the heralding of an armada of opposition against the government towards 2023.
“The only difference is that the people seem not to trust any of the existing political blocs the APC and the PDP. Unlike the way the APC took advantage of the 2012 protests against Jonathan and gradually sustained the pressure that eventually led to the ouster of the former President, I am afraid the current PDP might not be able to convert the current movement into a formidable political capital.
“Probably, this is the right time for a third force to really emerge and see if they can harness this positive energy to birth a new political movement. There might be a paradigm shift from what we see now.”
In his view, Wale Ogunade, national leader Voters Awareness Initiative, said: “I think the protest is born out of the state of affairs in the country, hopelessness; you can see for yourself. No one is happy with this government. #EndSARS protest is justified. A lot of us have experiences to share about the operations of those people; but it all shows the failure of this government. If they had carried out the reforms they promised in 2015, we would have made progress and people would be happy.
“Nigerians are tired, both old and young and they have shown that they are tired, and are no more timid when it comes to protest. If this would lead to end of APC I don’t know because they would contest election and see the result. But I can tell you Nigerians want change.”
Ogunade further said: “They want police reforms, why can’t the right people be recruited into the police? Their remuneration be good, and may be community policing; so that they would not bring somebody from somewhere who doesn’t understand the people and their culture which is part of the problem.”
Mike Omotosho, a former national chairman of Labour Party, said it was too early to say if it could affect the APC in future.
“I think it may be too early to say that, but what is obvious is that Nigerians are agitated and it is an opportunity for the APC government to respond and prove us wrong on their skill of governance and we would see what happens in the coming days,” Omotosho said.
He however, noted that “Their response, I mean, how they manage this protest would determine what happens to them in future elections in Nigeria. So, it is an opportunity for them to redeem their image or worsen it. You can see the people are not happy with Buhari; it is not only about SARS, but more deep, their future is in their hands really.”
For Professor Soji Adejumo, leader Yoruba Consultative Forum, “Nigerians grievances are clear and the government should act and listen to them. This administration’s popularity is waning and if I were them, we would act fast.”
“They know they are no more popular, the signs are there, Nigerians want reforms, the suffering is too much; how much is the naira to the dollar now? What about the economy? The way forward is restructuring of the country which some of us have been agitating for,” Adejumo said.
Adelaja Adeoye, ADP, National Publicity Secretary, believes that the protest is a clear message to the political class that the youths are gradually waking up.
“As you can also see, they have been pushed to the wall by the notorious SARS officers across Nigeria. Many Nigerians such as Deji Adeyanju, Segun Awosanya Segalink, myself have led various protests in this regards but what makes this one bigger is the fact that people can no longer take it, and they kept trooping to the streets to defend their lives,” he said.
According to him, “No person, political party or government can stand in the way of this organic protest. I led a protest against police brutality at Fela’s Kalakuta in Ikeja, when Johnson Kolade was gruesomely killed by trigger-happy police, so I know what is going on now.
“Also seeing the atrocities being perpetrated by many of the SARS officers such as the notorious one called James Nwafor, who has been sacked by the Anambra State Governor, Willie Obiano, and people are demanding for his immediate arrest and prosecution.
“Of course, this very #ENDSARS protest is bigger than the #OccupyNigeria of the 2012 over fuel subsidy that abruptly saw an end to the PDP era, but this particular one is not targeting any political party to be honest.”
Adeoye further recalled: “We all know the story of #OccupyNigeria of 2012, that it was a pro-opposition politicians-induced protest unlike the #ENDSARS that started off in 2017 by both Deji Adeyanju and Segalink as public advocacy group against police brutality. Nigerians just keyed in, and it went bigger on its own.
“Most of the people you see on the streets just want police to be reformed, then have better governance, and a country they can call their own. There is no need to politicise it, as you can even hear most of the protesters saying they don’t want any politicians near them, evidently in the way they chased Sowore away from their protest.
“However, the protest may affect the popularity of the government of the day, if the youths and elites in the country can use this same energy to support maybe a fresh political platform in the future elections. I say this because, you can see a lot of coordination in the way this protest is being carried out, the youths are techies, using majorly social media to call their fellows to actions.”
“This generation are obviously waking up and not falling for the tricks of the political class any longer, hoping that they will sustain the energy because that is what can truly transform the country as their movement will help to throw up the best amongst them into politics,” he further said.
