Controversy, doubts trail Tinubu’s vote score in APC presidential primary

..State-by-state results spark surprises

…It’s a winning strategy for 2027 — Analyst

..It’s a sign of what will happen in next election – APC

Controversy has trailed the declaration of President Bola Tinubu as winner of the presidential primary of the All Progressives Congress (APC) after polling a total of 10,999,162 votes in the exercise conducted last Saturday, with the result announced on Sunday.

The outcome has stirred intense debate in political circles, particularly over the scale of the figures recorded across the states during the exercise.

Pius Anyim, former Senate President and Chairman of the APC Presidential Primaries Election Committee, announced the results on Sunday. The results were collated at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja following the nationwide direct primary conducted simultaneously across all 8,809 wards on Saturday.

Stanley Osifo, who contested against Tinubu for the ticket, secured only 16,503 votes.

The APC had, after its recent electronic membership registration exercise, announced that it registered over 12 million members nationwide.

Questions over 10,999,162 votes

However, the outcome of the exercise has generated debate, with observers raising questions over the credibility and interpretation of the figures announced.

Among the issues being raised are, why some states record extraordinarily high vote figures despite relatively lower APC membership strength in those areas.

Others have also queried whether there was an independent verification mechanism to authenticate the votes announced by the primary election committee.

Some observers have asked whether it is procedurally normal for an internal party primary to produce figures running into nearly 11 million votes.

There are also questions over whether the announced numbers were symbolic endorsement totals rather than actual physical votes cast during the exercise.

Read also: Tinubu’s candidacy will fine-tune reforms for prosperous Nigeria – Bamidele

State-by-state breakdown of Tinubu’s votes

According to the breakdown released by the committee, Tinubu secured some of his highest vote totals in major northern states, with Kaduna producing 618,914 votes, Adamawa 644,149 votes, Kano 500,852 votes and Katsina 467,003 votes.

In Lagos State, regarded as Tinubu’s political stronghold, the president polled 814,988 votes, while he also secured 582,960 votes in Imo State, 450,517 votes in Gombe State and 414,988 votes in Borno State.

The figures released by the committee further showed that Tinubu garnered 407,646 votes in Delta State, 389,197 votes in Akwa Ibom State, 383,382 votes in Enugu State and 374,787 votes in Benue State.

In Rivers State, the president polled 280,082 votes, while he recorded 322,485 votes in Ogun State, 321,579 votes in Zamfara State and 310,990 votes in Kwara State.

Tinubu also secured 301,000 votes in Sokoto State, 292,972 votes in Kebbi State, 285,436 votes in Nasarawa State and 253,804 votes in Yobe State.

In Plateau State, Tinubu polled 241,720 votes, while Bayelsa State delivered 227,192 votes for the president. Ebonyi State produced 207,579 votes, Jigawa State 206,520 votes and Kogi State 197,370 votes.

Further results obtained by BusinessDay showed that Tinubu garnered 183,698 votes in Taraba State, 181,996 votes in Ondo State, 175,487 votes in Niger State and 161,005 votes in Abia State.

In Bauchi State, the president secured 156,541 votes, while Oyo State returned 142,754 votes. Edo State produced 121,098 votes, Cross River State 113,911 votes and Osun State 100,888 votes.

Ekiti State delivered 85,340 votes for Tinubu, while Anambra State produced 43,034 votes and the Federal Capital Territory recorded 36,103 votes.

However, the figures have triggered reactions among political observers and opposition figures, with some questioning the magnitude of the votes announced in several states during an internal party primary.

Analysts say the outcome further strengthens Tinubu’s position within the APC as the party prepares for what is expected to be a highly competitive presidential contest in 2027.

BusinessDay reports that the figures showed strong performances for the president across both northern and southern states, including traditionally competitive political territories.

Read also: Jonathan, Obi, Makinde will split southern votes against Tinubu – Osoba

It’s a winning strategy for 2027 — Analyst

But Jackson Ojo, a political analyst, told BusinessDay, in a telephone interview that the outcome of the APC primary was part of a wider political strategy ahead of the 2027 general election.

According to Ojo, the figures announced by the ruling party could later be used to justify significantly higher vote totals for President Tinubu in the next presidential election.

“In 2023, Mr President eventually scored about eight million votes or thereabouts. But this time around, within his political party alone, just because of the online registration, he is scoring over 10 million votes,” he said.

Ojo argued that the APC could rely on the primary figures as evidence of its electoral strength in 2027.
“When the time comes, if they write 18 million votes for Mr President, nobody will be able to argue because within the party alone, they scored over 10 million votes,” Ojo added.

It’s a sign of what will happen in 2027 – APC

However, Bala Ibrahim, APC National Director of Publicity, dismissed the criticisms in an interview with BusinessDay, insisting that the figures reflected the party’s internal support base.

“This is a pointer to what is expected come 2027,” Ibrahim said.

He explained that primary elections involved only registered party members choosing their preferred candidate and should not necessarily be compared with national election outcomes.

Ibrahim noted that the APC’s recent electronic membership registration produced about 12.7 million registered members, making the president’s nearly 11 million votes unsurprising.

“With the exception of Stanley Osifu and his little supporters, the entire party machinery is putting its weight behind the president,” he said.

According to him, the overwhelming endorsement demonstrated what he described as the APC’s “monolithic, undiluted and undivided support” for Tinubu ahead of 2027.

Memory lane

BusinessDay reports that ahead of the 2023 general election, Tinubu emerged winner of the APC presidential primary after defeating 13 other aspirants during the party’s Special National Convention in Abuja.

Tinubu secured 1,271 votes to emerge the party’s presidential candidate for the 2023 election through indirect mode, ahead of Rotimi Amaechi, former Minister of Transportation, who polled 316 votes, and Yemi Osinbajo, former Vice President, who garnered 235 votes.

Other contestants included Dave Umahi with 38 votes, Yahaya Bello with 47 votes, Ahmad Lawan with 152 votes and Ben Ayade with 37 votes.