Anxiety grows ahead 2027 polls as defection deadline draws near

Ahead of 2027 general elections, more defections may hit political parties in the coming day as window of deadline provided under the Electoral Act for political office holders seeking re-election on different party platforms closes this week.

Across the Country, consultations and closed-door meetings among governors, lawmakers and party stakeholders have intensified amid strong indications that several politicians may dump their parties before the expiration of the legal window.

Already, many politicians have defected to where their interest would be best served in recent days, with most notably been the defection of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

Since last Sunday, Peter Obi, former Anambra governor announced his decision, many of his supports have resigned massively from ADC, following him to the NDC.

Former Senate Minority Leader, Enyinnaya Abaribe, alongside Ume, few days ago also exited the African ADC ahead of the next election cycle. While Victor Ume joined the NDC, Abaribe joined the Labour Party (LP).

But party insiders say the looming deadline created tension within both the ruling and opposition parties, with leaders making last-minute efforts to retain aggrieved members and prevent further cracks within their ranks ahead of the 2027 general election.

The Electoral Act contains provisions restricting elected political office holders from defecting close to elections except under conditions recognised by law, making the current period crucial for politicians considering movement to other platforms.

Political observers believe the deadline has forced many politicians to accelerate negotiations over tickets, alliances and political survival ahead of the next election cycle.

“With the way things are moving, a lot will still happening as politicians have started moving form one party to another”, Dipo Oguntusi, political analyst, said.

“The realignments is what they need to play their games as the coast appear not to be clear for many of them in their various parties”.

Also, the recent judgement of the Supreme Court which has made the future of the party uncertain has also made many politicians to seek save heaven for themselves elsewhere.

A member of the ADC, who did not wnat his name in print, said the party would not lose his sleep over the wave of detection, stressing that many other people are also joining the party.

He advised party members who wish to stay, to ignore them stressing that the party future was secured.

“Anybody who thinks he can use the court to distabilise the ADC must be joking, those that want to go can go, our party would remain strong” he said.

A senior member of another opposition party, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said more defections are imminent as politicians race against time.

“In the next few days, you will witness more defections across parties because many politicians do not want to take chances after the deadline expires,” he said.

“Some have already concluded discussions quietly and are only waiting for the right moment to make public declarations.”

According to him, dissatisfaction over party structures, fears of losing tickets and disagreements over zoning arrangements are among the factors driving the expected wave of defections.

A political analyst, Kabiru Adamu, said the development reflects growing political uncertainty ahead of 2027.

“The political atmosphere is already becoming charged because politicians are calculating their chances early,” he said.

“Many office holders believe that remaining in parties where they lack control of structures could affect their political future. So, the deadline this week is putting pressure on many of them to take decisions quickly.”

He noted that governors and influential political leaders are also expected to play significant roles in determining the direction of movements across states.

“There are ongoing consultations involving senators, House of Representatives members and even some governors. Once a few major figures move, others may follow immediately,” he added.

Many politicians have already perfected plans to defect, but are just watching for further development and last minute negotiations that could go their way.

A chairman of the ruling party in one of the South-East state region said that anxiety has grown within party over possible defections of aspirants to where they would be given ticket.

“I think those leaving are doing so because they can’t get ticket, they are going to where ticket is sure, or following their leaders, but it has created anxiety in the party”, he said.

He stated that many politicians want automatic tickets and scared of primaries.

“Some politicians are demanding assurances over tickets and political relevance. Where they do not get such assurances, they may move.”

” If you have done well, why are you scared of primary, go and test your popularity, that is part of the problem”, he added.

Similarly, civil society organisations have advised politicians to place ideology and public interest above personal ambition, stressing that it would be unfair to other aspirants for the party to handpick candidates.

Executive Director of the Democratic Governance Initiative, Amina Yusuf, said persistent defections weaken public confidence in political parties.

“What Nigerians want to see are parties driven by programmes and ideology, not constant movements based on personal calculations,” she said.

“Unfortunately, many defections are usually linked to power struggles and ticket considerations rather than policy differences.”