• Saturday, December 02, 2023
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ANAP foundation polls in 2015, 2019 gave it to APC but Jonathan in 2011

Managing elections in Nigeria

The presidential election opinion polls conducted for ANAP foundation in 2015 and 2019 clearly said the then candidate of the APC Muhammadu Buhari had a better chance of winning the last two presidential elections.

The two polls were conducted by NOI polls, the same company that conducted the September 2022 presidential poll with Peter Obi leading but which has been generating controversy since the results were released by founder of the foundation, Atedo Peterside.

In a statement issued on February 16, 2015 to announce the results of the polls, the foundation said, “from the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2015 presidential elections, the figures put General Muhammadu Buhari in a slight lead (32 percent) over President Goodluck Jonathan (30 percent); indicating a 2 percentage points lead. Interestingly, both candidates enjoy decent support across gender and age groups.

“Some key highlights to note – on the average, Buhari enjoys groundswell support in the North-West and North-East geo-political zones; while Jonathan remains the beautiful bride of the South-South and South-East zones.

According to the statement, “the high PVC collection rates in the North-West and North-East Zones (above 80% in several states) appear to have given Buhari the slight advantage over the incumbent President Jonathan as much lower PVC collection rates of below 60% have been recorded in several states in the South-East and South-South zones (Jonathan’s area of strength) at the time of our survey.”

Read also: New poll puts Obi in strong lead over Atiku, Tinubu

On February 14, 2019, ANAP foundation released the results of a poll conducted for it by NOI and in it, the foundation said Buhari of the APC was in the lead against the main opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar.

According to a statement issued on the poll results by ANAP foundation, “from the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Presidential elections, the figures put President Muhammadu Buhari in the lead (with roughly one-third of the votes) over Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (with approximately one-quarter of the votes). Interestingly, both candidates enjoy decent support across gender and age groups.

Atiku also has a better spread across all six geopolitical zones. Buhari falls significantly short of 25% in the South East Zone and is also in danger of falling short of 25% in the South South Zone.

“Buhari’s lead is sizeable but not unassailable because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in the South East Zone, where he is weakest. Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is considerable disparity in turnout figures across the geopolitical zones. Buhari was always in the race as the front-runner.

Atiku started from zero and has momentum on his side. Given the size of the Undecided vote and its unique and concentration in the 3 Southern geopolitical zones and the North Central Zone, Anap Foundation has concluded that the final outcome is deemed to be too close to call.”

On on both occasions in 2015 and 2019, Bihari of the APC went on to win and the NOI poll results did not generate any controversy.

In 2011, NOI also conducted an opinion poll for ANAP foundation and the results were unveiled this way on March 22, 2011: “ahead of the presidential elections scheduled to hold on April 9, 2011, ANAP Foundation decided to commission NOI Polls Limited to conduct a face-to-face nationwide presidential poll to ascertain public sentiment on the candidacy of aspirants for the office of President.

NOI Polls administered the survey utilizing well established survey methodologies, including scientifically tested sampling techniques, developed by the Gallup Organization.

The opinion poll was carried out from February 11th – February 28th 2011 with a representative random sample of Nigerians drawn from Nigeria’s six major geo-political zones and reflecting rural urban split in population.

“The overriding objective of the poll is to empirically establish which of the presidential candidates stands the greatest chance of receiving the people’s mandate to ascend to the nation’s highest office.

The rationale for the survey in the run up to the elections is to provide Nigerians with the opportunity to express their views on salient political issues and candidates, as well as to generate data which gives an indication of the voting intentions of the citizenry prior to the elections.

Data generated from the nationwide presidential poll revealed the following: Almost all Nigerians have given at least some thought to the April elections.

“Nearly 3 out of 4 of the respondents have voted in at least one previous election. Almost all Nigerians had registered or planned to register to vote in the upcoming election. An extension of the period for the voter registration exercise would further enable registration of eligible voters in Nigeria.

“46% of Nigerians were aware that Ibrahim Shekarau is running for president. 48% of respondents were aware that Nuhu Ribadu is running for president. 73% of Nigerians were aware that Muhammed Buhari is running for president. 93% of respondents were aware that Goodluck Jonathan is running for president. For all other candidates, less than 20% of Nigerians knew that they were running for president. Majority (85%) of Nigerians feel very strongly about their choice for the presidential position. Most (53%) of the respondents think that Goodluck Jonathan will win the April presidential position. Most (68%) approve of Goodluck Jonathan’s performance as president.”

Jonathan went on to win that election as the survey suggested.

However, the APC was the first to rubbish the latest opinion by NOI poll, calling the results which put Peter Obi of Labour Party in a clear lead and some have suggested that APC blows hot and cold as it suits the party.