2027 election and the ‘Ides of March’ in May

A popular admonition was given to Julius Caesar as captured in the William Shakespeare’s play book ‘Julius Caesar. A soothsayer had warned the influential man to “Beware the Ides of March.” But Caesar shrugged it off. He was warned about his imminent assassination in the hands of Roman politicians, among whom was his trusted friend, Brutus.

Julius Caesar tried to make joke of the important matter. Had he given a deep thought and applied caution, perhaps, he would not have suffered great loss, including the loss of his own life.

Ahead of the 2027 general election, there are signs that the two major opposition political parties might face exclusion from the exercise.

Like the soothsayer that issued a warning to Caesar to “Beware the Ides of March, there are warnings and pieces of advice to the major opposition political parties to Beware the Ideas of March” in May.

The Independent National Electoral Commision (INEC) has since released the timetable for the 2027 general election. According to the schedule, all parties’ lists of candidates must be submitted to the Commission by May 30, 2026. The electoral umpire has repeatedly said that any party that fails to abide by the directive risks missing on the ballot.

The soothsayer’s admonition did not just come by accident. There was a foundation. An assassination plot had been hatched against Caesar even by those who dined and wined with him on a daily basis. His mind did not tell him that his friends had become vampires. In his mind, they were close associates and friends. He thought that Brutus would not keep quiet if an insurrection was breeding somewhere.

By the same token, despite the permutations by informed analysts over the likelihood of the oppositions missing on the ballot, the parties are treating those possibilities with a wave of the hand. Although there are signs all over the place to that effect, the opposition has chosen to play the ostrich.

By Sunday, May 10, 2026, the parties had rushed to beat the deadline for the submission of their updated membership registers. But the big elephant in the room, as it were, is the May 30, 2026 deadline of submission of candidates’ lists.

Although the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Alliance (ADC) have, individually, engaged in sale of expression of interest and nominations forms, screening of aspirants and some other necessities, the pending legal issues hanging on the necks of the two parties may ruin their chances.

The Supreme Court’s recent ruling has significantly complicated the leadership crisis within the PDP, following a split judgment that nullified the party’s controversial national convention in Ibadan, Oyo State.

By dismissing the appeal led by the Tanimu Turaki-led faction, the apex court upheld earlier lower court decisions that found the convention violated internal party rules and subsisting court. The judgement has left the PDP leaderless and somehow castrated. It cannot move forward.

Although Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), had repeatedly said that the party would field candidates in the election, observers say that he was just engaging in mere filibustering.

The major question is, who will sign the forms of the aspirants since there is no recognised leader in the part as of now?

For the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the coast also appears complicated. Last Friday, a federal High Court in Abuja adjourned indefinitely a suit filed by Nafiu Bala Gombe, a former deputy national chairman of the ADC challenging David Mark’s leadership of the party.

With the indeterminate date for the hearing, it would mean that the party’s forward-march may have been truncated.

Observers say that the development has the capacity of buccaneering the chances of the party in coalition from being on the ballot, despite its efforts to field candidates.

In all, the major opposition must “Beware the Ides of March” in May.