2027: Analysts, others weigh in on Obi-Kwankwaso NDC alliance

…Flag potential faultlines, strengths ahead of polls

As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 general elections, the alliance between Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Kano State governor, on the platform of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) has triggered fresh debate over the coalition’s ability to pose a formidable challenge to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The prospect of an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is already generating interest across political circles, particularly among opposition supporters seeking a united front against President Bola Tinubu and the APC in 2027.

Pundits are of the view that the NDC’s zoning of its 2027 presidential ticket to the South, coupled with Kwankwaso’s endorsement of the resolution at the party’s national convention at the weekend, has further boosted confidence in the strength and unity of the emerging alliance.

However, analysts say the success of the alliance will depend on several critical factors, including voter loyalty, regional calculations, party structure and financial strength. One of the biggest questions is whether Obi’s large support base, popularly known as the Obidient Movement would fully migrate to NDC.

Obi and Kwankwaso recently dumped the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the NDC, over leadership crisis in the former.

While many of Obi’s supporters are believed to be personally loyal to him, some political observers warn that repeated defections could trigger disillusionment among young voters who backed him in 2023 when he contested for president on the platforms of the Labour Party (LP).

There are also concerns about voter apathy if supporters begin to see opposition coalitions as driven more by political survival than ideology or long-term vision.

Similarly, attention is focused on whether Kwankwaso’s influential Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano and parts of northern Nigeria would move with him into NDC. The movement remains one of the strongest grassroots political structures in the North and could significantly boost the opposition’s chances if fully mobilised behind a coalition.

Political analysts believe Kwankwaso’s decision could reshape northern alliances ahead of the election. Some argue it may split northern votes currently leaning towards the APC, while others believe it could unify sections of the North-West and North-Central behind a single opposition bloc.

Despite the excitement surrounding the talks, questions remain over whether NDC possesses the nationwide structure and financial muscle needed to compete with the APC, which currently controls 31 of the 36 states and enjoys strong institutional backing.

Observers have compared the emerging coalition talks with the formation of the APC in 2013, when opposition parties merged to defeat then President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.

However, analysts note that the APC coalition benefited from stronger governors’ support, clearer power-sharing arrangements and a broader national structure at the time.

Analysts split over prospects of Obi-Kwankwaso alliance

Political analysts and stakeholders have expressed divergent views over the alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso in the NDC, ahead of the 2027 presidential election. While some described it as a formidable force against the ruling APC, others dismissed its chances.

Speaking to BusinessDay, Jackson Lekan Ojo, a political analyst, argued that the alliance lacks the political strength and national acceptance required to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

According to him, the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso ticket would largely depend on its acceptance across the North and other regions of the country.

“It depends on their acceptance by Northern voters. Will they accept Obi? Acceptance and trust will play a key role,” Ojo said. He further argued that the once-vibrant Obidient Movement had weakened considerably after the 2023 elections.

“The Obidient Movement is already collapsing. Kwankwaso, on the other hand, is not fully trusted by the Northern political elite. So, I don’t think they have what it takes to defeat Tinubu in 2027, though I am not supporting the APC,” he added.

However, Chekwas Okorie, elder statesman and former presidential candidate, described the emerging alliance as a potential “game changer” capable of reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape.

Okorie said the mere prospect of Obi and Kwankwaso working together had already altered political calculations across parties.

“The moment that alliance began to look like reality, it started reverberating across the country and among political parties. People have returned to the drawing board,” he said.

He argued that the coalition could recreate the historic political partnership between Northern and Eastern Nigeria seen during the First and Second Republics.

“That alliance between the North and the East will be the team to beat. If they consolidate what has already gained momentum nationally, it will become a very reliable option in 2027,” Okorie stated.

But Usman Yusuf, former Executive Secretary of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), has revived allegations against Peter Obi over his tenure as governor of Anambra State, saying Northern Nigerians would closely scrutinise his past record ahead of the 2027 elections.

Yusuf made the remarks during an interview on Trust TV, where he questioned Obi’s relationship with northerners while serving as governor of Anambra State.

“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is often interred with their bones. We are going to interrogate and question Peter Obi’s tenure when he was governor of Anambra State,” Yusuf said.

He accused Obi of implementing policies he described as discriminatory against northerners resident in the state.

“What he did to northerners, we all know that. He deported them. He even made them have identity cards, their names, where they are from, what their occupation is, in this Nigeria that we live in,” he said.

Yusuf argued that Obi’s political alliance with Kwankwaso would not erase concerns about his past actions, insisting that Northern voters would demand explanations.

“It is this same Kwankwaso that had to fly to Awka and warn them to be careful because there are more Igbo people living peacefully in Kano than northerners across the South-East,” he said.

According to him, Kwankwaso’s role in any emerging coalition would largely be to help Obi gain acceptance in the North, but maintained that Obi’s record would remain a major issue.

Also weighing in, Bernard Mikko, political scientist and former federal lawmaker, said the growing unity among opposition figures could significantly alter the political equation ahead of the next general election.

“With the unity of the opposition, anything can happen. The arrogance of power will be diluted by the strength of the opposition,” he said. Mikko said economic hardship, insecurity and electricity challenges were energising opposition politics across the country.

On his part, Martins Onovo, a former presidential candidate said the alliance poses a serious threat to the APC, arguing that public dissatisfaction with governance could become a major factor in the 2027 election.

He noted that worsening economic conditions and growing frustration among young Nigerians could work against the ruling party if the opposition succeeds in presenting a united front.