Why Nigeria’s renewable energy future hangs in ‘the balance’

The words “balancing power” were on every lip at the Energy Transition Forum, a high-level meeting gathering Nigeria’s leading energy decision-makers in Lagos and Abuja to discuss strategies to turn Nigeria’s long term sustainable energy vision into reality. Organised by Wärtsilä, the company behind more than 800 MW of power capacity built in the country over the past 20 years, these exclusive meetings are an opportunity for stakeholders to take a hard look at the technologies available to expand the country’s power system and evaluate how today’s choices will impact Nigeria’s sustainable energy goals. The meetings were opened by keynotes from the Chief Technical Advisor to the Honourable Minister of Power of Nigeria Adedayo Olowoniyi, as well as The Finnish Ambassador to Nigeria, Sanna Selin.

 “Today’s power flexibility choices must match the country’s long-term sustainable energy plans, say energy experts.”

More balancing power for a stable supply and a strong grid

In its Energy Transition Plan (ETP), Nigeria aims to reach net zero by 2060. To meet this target, the country will have to deploy enormous amounts of renewable energy, mostly solar PV, and wind energy.

Whilst these two technologies are reliable and very cost-competitive, they are also intermittent, which means that they cannot, alone, ensure a stable supply of electricity into the grid. To get the job done, they need to be paired with “balancing” power technologies, such as engine power plants and storage technology, which have the operational flexibility needed to compensate for renewable energy production spikes and drops.

“That’s why I like to say that Nigeria’s sustainable energy future hangs “in the balance”, quite literally. Without sufficient capacities of ultra-responsive power, it will be next to impossible to properly integrate a massive quantity of renewable energy and maintain the stability of the grid.”, said Wale Yusuff, Managing Director of Wärtsilä in Nigeria. “Considering Nigeria’s long-term ambitions for renewables, we need to invest in power plants that have the capability to rapidly ramp up and down, or start and stop, to support our future high renewable energy grid.”, Yusuff continued.

Nigeria’s decarbonisation is feasible with current technologies

Power technologies needed for a cost-effective net zero power system are already available and ready for implementation. Adding to the equation Nigeria’s huge gas reserves and high solar and wind resources, there is no doubt that Nigeria has the right fundamentals in place to accomplish a successful energy transition.

Read also: Timely investment in renewable energy will transform Africa

The actual roadmap is being fine-tuned. “In a nutshell, we will have renewables as the new baseload, engine power plants and storage to deal with peak power needs or compensate shortages of renewable production, as well as sustainable fuels to replace gas to run flexible engine power plants further down the road and thus complete the transition to net zero. A 100 percent renewable energy future is possible by 2060, but we need to implement the best possible 30+ years trajectory to get there.”, explained Yusuff.

A detailed and realistic roadmap showing how Nigeria should proceed to build a resilient 100 percent renewable energy power system by 2060 is indeed necessary. According to Wärtsilä’s highly experienced energy analysts, investing in renewable energy and flexibility from gas engines and energy storage is the best way to reduce energy costs, increase energy access and improve grid reliability.

“This power mix offers the most system-level benefits. Nigeria’s domestic gas will initially play a big role to enable a smooth energy transition. Gas is a suitable and inexpensive bridging fuel, which can be used to run the balancing engines power plants until we can begin to use green hydrogen and other sustainable fuels to power them towards the end of the next decade. That’s the beauty of fuel-flexible engine power plants: they save you from a fossil fuel lock-in.”, said Yusuff.

Making the right flexibility choices today is paramount to ensure a solid alignment with the country’s long-term net zero vision. Within the next 10 years alone, Nigeria expects to have a renewable energy installed capacity of 7 GW of grid-connected Solar PV and 18 GW of off-grid Solar PV. This will require the support of minimum 2GW of ultra flexible capacity to manage variability in renewable power production and balance the grid. “We talk a great deal about renewables. But let us not forget that the word “balance” should hold a front-stage position in Nigeria’s energy debate.”, concluded Yusuff.