US election: Forecasting trade implications for Africa

Since the time both political parties-Democratic and Republican-settled for their standard-bearers, my WhatsApp updates have been awash with sound bites, internet memes, and torrents of foul-mouthed abuse from both candidates. I’m frequently questioned by friends and acquaintances about my fixation with the United States election, and I’ve had to explain how I have skin in the game. One of my mentors, an American, whom I’ve worked with for more than a decade, went into a state of depression upon receiving the news that Donald Trump won the November 8, 2016 election. He had to undergo counselling and psychotherapy for months. His depression was a heavy drag on our work.

Even after the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump-adjured uninspiring, but redolent with accusations, vitriol and tactless exchanges- the November 5 election, based on overall prediction, remains a toss-up: to be won by a razor-thin edge. Clea Conner, CEO of the Open to Debate Foundation, who suggested an Oxford-style debate, expressed her disappointment with the debate in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. She said the debate “devolved into political theatre, with combative candidates, biased media, agenda-driven moderators and a fixation on social-media sound bites.” Their respective conversations with podcasters have also been vapid as pertinent questions are either parried or replied to evasively, while they continue to double down on vilification.

“On the soapbox, Trump, through misleading information and flawed economic mastery, continues to sell to his cult-like followers the notion that America’s economy is in jeopardy.”

To forecast world trade implications under a second Trump presidency, the best predictor would be his antecedents. Globalism, discard, reciprocity and return to protectionism will be the hallmarks of Trump’s trade policy. In his first term, tariffs became the tool he employed to extract new deals from other countries. His recent campaign rhetoric has been vexatious and opprobrious. On the soapbox, Trump, through misleading information and flawed economic mastery, continues to sell to his cult-like followers the notion that America’s economy is in jeopardy.

Read also: Meet 20 billionaires backing Trump and Kamala in the race for The White House

In fairness to the Trump administration, it began drafting a Free Trade Agreement with Kenya until President Joe Biden came in and set it aside in favour of the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership. Trump did unveil a ‘new Africa Strategy’ to advance US trade and commercial ties with African nations. Its surreptitious underpinning was to counter the influence of America’s adversaries like China and Russia on the continent. Should Trump emerge victorious, he will compel African countries to jettison Chinese products and embrace America’s as a quid pro quo for trade assistance. In the account of Martin Kimani, the Executive Director, NYU’s Centre on International Cooperation, on Trump’s eccentric way of making deals, he said, “When Trump met the then President Kenyatta in the Oval Office, the first question he asked him right after the courtesies is, how come you’re not doing business with American companies.” A Trump presidency will urge the African countries to reduce import restrictions on US goods and agricultural products, especially the ones that face ‘unscientific barriers’ and put American farmers and producers at a disadvantage. Based on his modus operandi, any African country that fails to amend unfavourable trade policy to American companies risks brutal trade sanctions.

For Kamala, she has a lot of crossover appeals, from flip-flopping on fracking, to her volte-face on the border wall, to her u-turn on mandatory shift to electric vehicles. It’s still not sure where her leftist policies will lean. If they lean to the far left, that will have huge implications for the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Enacted in 2000 as part of broader legislation to strengthen US trade ties with Africa, AGOA grants sub-Saharan African countries the special right to export certain products to the US tariff-free. In 2023, US trade imports under AGOA totalled $9.7 billion. Due to expire in September 2025, Senators Chris Coons and James Risch have co-sponsored bipartisan legislation to extend AGOA until 2041.

Based on the bipartisan support it enjoys in the US Congress, AGOA’s main challenge won’t be re-authorisation but alteration. African governments are already pushing for more flexibility concerning AGOA’s eligibility criteria. A Kamala presidency won’t accede to such a request to lower governance and human rights standards for the Act. In fact, the far-left policies of Kamala would radically alter the Act’s qualification conditions to include climate-related standards, which may reduce the number of eligible countries for AGOA.

Unlike Trump whose energy policies could be summarised with the slogans ‘drill baby drill’ and ‘frack frack frack’, Kamala could boost Africa’s trade by implementing the recommendations of a policy outlook document written by Zainab Usman and Alexander Csanadi. Titled, “How the AGOA reauthorisation process could help diversify US critical mineral supplies”, one of the recommendations is the exemption of eligible African mineral producers from the restrictions of the Inflation Reduction Act. Others include renegotiating a new Critical Minerals Agreement and reframing the US-Africa trade relationship. Based on her amenable character, she can follow through on such recommendations, all the more so as her campaign has assembled a 25-member team to devise a comprehensive US-Africa policy. On average, a Kamala presidency will be a net positive gain for Africa’s trade and development.

Olaniyi, a former OP-ED Editor of The PUNCH, wrote via [email protected]