President Ahmed Bola Tinubus government has repeatedly stated its determination to grow the economy into a trillion-dollar one. While many consider this improbable given the well-known hydra-headed challenges the country continues to face, not least the struggle to boost the productive enterprise space and diversify away from overreliance on oil, and governments struggles to increase its revenue, it is nonetheless achievable.
The second coming of Trump
However, the second coming of Donald Trump as the president of the United States with his isolationist agenda may just have added an extra layer of difficulty to the countrys path to achieving this milestone. Trump has always projected an American first façade. This was clearly on display in his first presidency when he sought to protect American trade by starting a trade war with China, forcing a rewrite of trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, and raising tariffs on US imports. The Biden administration tried to roll back some of the isolationist and protectionist activities to ensure the United States maintained its world leadership.
Now that Trump is back in the White House, he has wasted no time in digging in to highlight he is an unrepentant isolationist and protectionist. On his first day in office, he made this clear by signing a raft of executive orders aimed at reining in USs global commitments, which he considered to be shackling his American First dream. Some of these orders included withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate action, withdrawal from the World Health Organisation, an order to end Birthright Citizenship, ordering an investigation into USs trade deficits, a precursor to raising tariffs and disguise for another trade crisis with China, Mexico, Canada, and other trading partners. Other orders are targeted at increasing US oil and gas production and the curtailment of migration to the US, among others.
Trump’s policies hamper $1 trillion plan
Some of these policies will directly hurt Nigerias desire to grow its economy. For instance, the envisaged increase in oil and gas production by the US will likely force international oil prices down. Lower oil prices will no doubt affect Nigerias revenue from the sector, which forms the bulk of its revenue receipt. A stronger dollar, as Trump planned, will result in additional inflationary pressure on the naira considering that Nigeria is heavily import dependent. Trumps planned tax cut is expected to be financed by increases in tariffs. Economic experts have said that if Trumps plan scales through it would increase inflation in the US and slow interest rate cuts, making investments within the US more attractive, which will affect foreign direct investments into emerging economies, Africa and Nigeria particularly. The reality is that a Trump presidency does not look too positive for Nigerias desire to grow its economy to $1 trillion.
Diaspora Nigerians can help the govt
In spite of Trump, however, Nigeria is uniquely positioned to grow its economy and achieve its target. With arguably the most vibrant diasporan population in the world the country must be innovative enough to tap into the opportunity. Countries like India, China, and Israel were able to tap into their diaspora human resources to achieve great transformation for their economies.
Nigeria must stop seeing the japa (mass relocation of Nigerians abroad) phenomenon as a negative and rather hone in on the positives and develop policies that will enable it to tap into the trend. The country has riches of great brains and minds making significant impacts globally across industries that it could harness for greatness. Chairman of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM), Abike Dabiri-Erewa, revealed recently that diasporan Nigerians spent in excess of N60 billion on Detty December (a period when Nigerians based abroad come home to celebrate the December holiday with their loved ones back in Nigeria) visit last year.
Diasporans are able and willing
Nigerians in diaspora no doubt have the financial resources, the technical know-how, the international exposure, the connections, and most importantly the willingness to invest these qualifications in their home country. It behooves the government to fashion policies and laws that could help harness these potential.
Nigeria can learn from China, India, Israel
One way India, China and others have managed to harness their diasporan population is through partnerships with host countries. Nigeria can enter into labour agreements with countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and other European nations with significant numbers of Nigerians to develop opportunities for skills development and circular migration, that is, labour exchanges. The country can also work with host nations to contribute to the welfare and professional growth of diaspora Nigerians thus making it more likely for them to be eager to contribute to the economic development of the homeland.
The government can also support diaspora entrepreneurs to establish businesses back home by providing the necessary resources such as access to land, funding, and seamless business registration, among other supports. Much the same way India or China optimised their diaspora population, Nigeria can encourage or help facilitate collaborations between local businesses and diaspora in a joint venture arrangement. Other ways the government can harness the economic power of diaspora Nigerians are through tax rebates to encourage remittances, venture capital funding for local startups in key sectors of the economy, knowledge transfer opportunities through training and mentorship, as well as diaspora investments in the stock market, real estate, and other viable opportunities.
Nigeria has a great opportunity to engage its diaspora population through the above channels thus enabling it to unlock billions of dollars in investment, boost knowledge transfer, and propel development in key sectors that will drive sustainable economic growth and help the government achieve its $1 trillion target.
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