Bola Ahmed Tinubu has consistently played major roles in party politics since 1992 when he was elected Senator for Lagos West District. He has since then served as the Governor of Lagos State for eight years between 1999 and 2007.
Tinubu’s legacy as governor includes pioneering the Bus Rapid Transit System and LAGBUS, the establishment of the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA), and creation of 37 local council development areas.
As an advocate of true federalism, he referenced at least 13 matters related to the principle of federalism to be tested by the Supreme Court. His creation of the LCDAs led to the federal government seizing the allocations to local governments in the state from the federation account until he and General Obasanjo left their different offices in 2007.
It is on record that Mr. Tinubu successfully managed the Lagos economy, improving its Internally Generated Revenue from a paltry N600 million monthly, which has now grown to N51 billion under the present leadership in the state. This was possible because of the structures that Bola Tinubu introduced.
Nigerians who voted for Bola Ahmed Tinubu on February 25, 2023, are convinced that Tinubu will transform the already battered economy of Nigeria the way he changed Lagos State when he was at the helm of its affairs.
The economy of Nigeria is middle-income driven with expanding manufacturing, financial, service, communications, technology, and entertainment sectors. It is ranked as the 31st largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP and the largest in Africa.
The last seven years
The last seven years (2015–2022) have been tough for Nigerians. During this period, GDP growth averaged 1.1 percent as the country experienced two economic recessions. Unemployment and underemployment rates increased to an all-time high of 56.1% in 2020, pushing 133 million of the population into multidimensional poverty, according to data gathered from the National Bureau of Statistics. Likewise, economic growth has not been inclusive, and it is faced with key challenges of lower productivity, this is coupled with the weak expansion of sectors with high employment elasticity.
As at September 2022, Nigeria’s total debt stock rose to N44.06 trillion as against N42.84 trillion recorded on June 30. The debt “comprises of Total Domestic and External Debt Stock of the Federal Government of Nigeria. This is according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).
It is unfortunate that this is the economy the President-Elect will inherit on May 29, 2023; with its inherent poor state of insecurity, weak infrastructure, high rate of unemployment, increased business mortality etc. These have culminated in the loss of confidence in Nigeria’s prospects, the reason for her inability to attract foreign direct investments for the past 8 years. The question now is, what magic wand can the incoming government under Mr. Tinubu wave to pull Nigeria out of the woods?
To provide insight, it is essential to examine the President Elect’s campaign manifesto.
The Tinubu manifesto
A cursory examination of the manifesto provides some ray of hope for the nation, especially the business community that has been groaning under the outgoing administration’s inconsistent economic policies.
In October last year, Tinubu released an 80-page policy document titled “Renewed Hope 2023 – Action Plan for a Better Nigeria. He emphasized that his objective is to foster a new society based on shared prosperity, tolerance, compassion, and the unwavering commitment to treating each citizen with equal respect and due regard.
Top on his priority lists of action are national security, economy, agriculture, power, oil and gas, transportation and education.
He promised to review the revenue-sharing formula among the three tiers of government. The incoming President will allocate more funds to the states and local governments to address local concerns and fulfill their expanded constitutional obligations to the people. He stated that the existing arrangement has been problematic because “state governments are closer to the people and must be more responsive to local needs and aspirations of the people.”
On his fiscal policy, Tinubu has promised to review the federal budgetary methodology, embark on national infrastructure campaign, drive an import substitution agenda, reform the taxation system whereby the rich will pay more for what they consume, and lastly fight corruption, inefficiency and waste in government.
On his government’s monetary policy, the nation should be witnessing a very tight management of the exchange rate that will be different from the current loose, open market approach. Inflation shall be more targeted and managed, while foreign debt obligations will be limited and re-negotiated.
The most important is the industrial policy. There will be a national industrial plan that will be focusing on the following:
I. Extend tax and other credit facilities
II. Encourage domestic manufacturers and producers
III. Develop major and minor industrial hubs in all geopolitical zones
IV. Promote and boost industrial creativity with the use of new innovative technologies
V. Provide tax credits and reduce the interest rate on loans
One of the key areas of the gap the manifesto noted is in the housing needs of Nigerians. President-Elect Bola Tinubu’s housing policy will focus on creating mortgage and consumer credit reforms, and introduce a home ownership programme for civil servants with flexible payment terms.
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Oil & Gas
I. In Oil and Gas, he will be increasing domestic oil production with the goal of increasing crude oil production to 2.6mmbpd by 2027 and 4mmbpd by 2030 respectively.
II. Increase Indigenous Participation and Host Community Development, with the goal to Increase indigenous share of crude oil production to over 1mmbpd by 2027
III. Harness Domestic Gas Potential, with the Goal to achieve full deregulation of midstream gas prices within 6 months, increase gas production by 20% and complete critical gas infrastructure projects by 2027.
IV.Implement Policy Reform, with the goal of accelerating the full implementation of the Petroleum Industrial Act (PIA) and implementing additional favorable policies to attract investment in deepwater assets within 6 months.
V. Increase Investment in Infrastructure and Technology, with the goal of securing Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) and international partnerships towards financing infrastructure development.
VI. Ensure Stability of Petroleum Product Supply, with the goal to achieving stability of petroleum products supply by fully deregulating the downstream sector and ensuring that local refinery capacity will meet domestic consumption needs.
Conclusion
If this manifesto and promises are implemented with sincerity of purpose, the Nigerian economy should begin to re-calibrate within the first year and in four years, it should experience stability in all key socio economic sectors with general hope renewed in the new Nigeria project.
We can anticipate an expansion of the middle class and its attendant effect on job creation and GDP.
Odusote, writes in from Lagos. He is a Political Lobbying, Corporate Communication and Stakeholders Engagement Specialist at CMC Connect LLP (Perception Consulting).
