Nobody in the Democratic presidential debates has attacked Mr Obama directly. Their distancing is no less emphatic for its stealth. This too can be blamed on Mr Trump. In addition to his scorched earth war on the Obama presidency, Mr Trump has destroyed its premise. Mr Obama was elected on the lofty vow of finding what Americans have in common. There was no red or blue state America in his worldview — only a united America. Was that only a decade ago? To Democrats, Mr Trump’s presidency started in the year zero. Their continued shock at Mr Trump’s election outweighs their nostalgia for Mr Obama’s 2008 campaign.
That is one reason Mr Biden’s lead is so shaky. Unlike the other 23 candidates, Mr Biden believes Mr Trump is an aberration. Defeat him in 2020 and the US can return to the certainties of the Obama years. Few others share Mr Biden’s upbeat vision. America is too bitterly divided to be healed by gauzy hopefulness. Mr Obama came from a place of magnanimity. That is also Mr Biden’s sentiment. Most other candidates have moved on to vengeance. It would make no sense for Democrats to revive talk of “purple America” when they are calling for Mr Trump’s impeachment.
Mr Trump has also radicalised Democrats. In retrospect, the Obama administration looks like the epitome of the establishment. It was full of Wall Street alumni. As the writer, George Packer, put it: “Obama was a technocrat disguised as a visionary.” Reaction against his lack of vision is one reason why many of the leading candidates, including Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, have joined Bernie Sanders’ call for single payer healthcare. It is also why Mr Biden was grilled so hard by fellow candidates about whether he privately objected to Mr Obama’s deportation of more than 2m illegal immigrants. Mr Biden pleaded confidentiality. It is an awkward fact that Mr Trump has not yet come close to emulating Mr Obama’s deportation record.
In another age, Democrats would be vowing to restore what Mr Trump is undoing. Instead they are promising a radical departure. Not even Mr Biden would be content with rejoining the Paris climate agreement. By the standards of the “green new deal”, the accord Mr Obama negotiated reeked of caution. Mr Obama pursued an “all of the above” energy strategy. Mr Biden on Wednesday came close to vowing to abolish all fossil fuels. In 2009, Mr Obama told Wall Street executives that he was all that was standing between them and the pitchforks. Today’s Democrats are the pitchforks. Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York, has even set up a website called “tax the hell” out of the rich.
What then will remain of the Obama legacy? The most radical aspect of Mr Obama’s election was his ethnicity. As America’s first non-white president, he made history. Mr Trump’s racial goading has complicated that national redemption. Yet there is nothing Mr Trump can do to eradicate Mr Obama’s example. Half of the candidates on the stage with Mr Biden on Wednesday were non-white, including Ms Harris, his chief rival. His other rivals are a white woman, Ms Warren, a gay married man, Peter Buttigieg, and a socialist, Bernie Sanders. Next in line are Julian Castro, a Mexican-American, and Cory Booker, an African-American.
Such a field would have been inconceivable a few years ago. As he surveys today’s wreckage, Mr Obama can draw on one other consolation: at least he merits the occasional mention. Bill Clinton, by contrast, has vanished. In the age of #Metoo, America’s 42nd president is persona non grata. Democrats are busy purging the past. Given the mood, it would be a surprise were Mr Biden to make it to the finishing line.
